Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
UCLA Bruins vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 153.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c9e80b07389024452594857ed41dd3cdca9600261ed0fad1560ddaef808ce0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,693
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,799
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,693 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Over | 51c | 5,000$2,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,560 | 417 | 52.5%219 W · 198 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9931…ea8cbacked Under | 44c | 2,379$1,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,332.24 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Under | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 248 | 47.6%118 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 44c | 607.88$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.62 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Over | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 564 | 44.1%249 W · 315 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f8…e913backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 56c | 456.15$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.93 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 316 | 47.8%151 W · 165 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55fc…8b73backed Under | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Under | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ceb…b516backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…ecbfbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd711…afd5backed Over | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.31per pick | 58cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 211 | 52.1%110 W · 101 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd286…4c1bbacked Under | 50c | 51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +13.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 498 | 49.6%247 W · 251 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ee…0bb0backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd010…ca47backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c66…0a4fbacked Under | 50c | 38.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Over | 53c | 26.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 46c | 23.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x971c…f72cbacked Under | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…5ebbbacked Under | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaca8…6894backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e3…ac06backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UCLA Bruins vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 153.5this page
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-14.5)Michigan Wolverines won
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-15.5)Michigan Wolverines won
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-16.5)Michigan Wolverines won
- UCLA Bruins vs. Michigan WolverinesMichigan Wolverines won
- UCLA Bruins vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 152.5Under won
- UCLA Bruins vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 154.5Under won
- UCLA Bruins vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 155.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.