Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-15.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf10a7c3047fc4ded4d806d2eab8d96b4089234707088da6b54c953757b157d50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michigan Wolverinesof Michigan Wolverines, UCLA Bruins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,081
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,096
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,081 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Michigan Wolverines | 51c | 2,128$1,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,041.69 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed UCLA Bruins | 49c | 2,042$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 220 | 43.2%95 W · 125 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Michigan Wolverines | 53c | 479$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.13 | 1,155 | 50.4%582 W · 573 L | -34.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked UCLA Bruins | 51c | 390$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 170 | 51.2%87 W · 83 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Michigan Wolverines | 45c | 373.75$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.56 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed UCLA Bruins | 48c | 260$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.14 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed UCLA Bruins | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 820 | 48.2%395 W · 425 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce1…b62cbacked UCLA Bruins | 51c | 196.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 160$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 307 | 46.3%142 W · 165 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked UCLA Bruins | 55c | 157.66$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.71 | 1,531 | 50.1%767 W · 764 L | +34.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Michigan Wolverines | 48c | 154.84$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.14 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed UCLA Bruins | 47c | 141$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.27 | 918 | 48.9%449 W · 469 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed UCLA Bruins | 55c | 137$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.35 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Michigan Wolverines | 49c | 126.41$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.47 | 277 | 55.2%153 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed UCLA Bruins | 55c | 120$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Michigan Wolverines | 49c | 105.3$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.41 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Michigan Wolverines | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 891 | 46.2%412 W · 479 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Michigan Wolverines | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.64 | 383 | 51.7%198 W · 185 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26b9…9ab5backed UCLA Bruins | 52c | 96.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2442…0c2bbacked Michigan Wolverines | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 140 | 51.4%72 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Michigan Wolverines | 49c | 71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 505 | 48.9%247 W · 258 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Michigan Wolverines | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 211 | 52.1%110 W · 101 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed UCLA Bruins | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 107 | 55.1%59 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed UCLA Bruins | 47c | 45.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Michigan Wolverines | 48c | 36.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbc…3b01backed UCLA Bruins | 52c | 33.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc14d…f8b4backed UCLA Bruins | 52c | 26.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf71…9f1cbacked UCLA Bruins | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-15.5)this page
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-14.5)Michigan Wolverines won
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-16.5)Michigan Wolverines won
- UCLA Bruins vs. Michigan WolverinesMichigan Wolverines won
- UCLA Bruins vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 152.5Under won
- UCLA Bruins vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 153.5Under won
- UCLA Bruins vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 154.5Under won
- UCLA Bruins vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 155.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.