World Politics · resolved market
Another MP leaves Conservative Party of Canada by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cbd57ec8f19284be9f99b9e5735ef5846acc57f38d712c04713706231bb2314
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,936
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,936 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 166 | 16.9%28 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…af95backed No | 12c | 239.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5959…ae7abacked Yes | 34c | 171.96$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +190.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 20c | 127.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | +28.4wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc888…c718backed Yes | 13c | 110.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.69 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3e…7fccbacked Yes | 42c | 59.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +227.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 61c | 44.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed No | 58c | 39.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 74c | 34.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked No | 57c | 27.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.