MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cca581e5ca73f5d10982addb03cfc3779c70d71ef5e0aae1d8e73e42e2dde1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof Miami Marlins, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,413
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,416
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,413 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Diego Padres | 60c | 9,830$5,881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,948.85 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Miami Marlins | 40c | 7,962$3,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,205.83 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 5,394$2,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,247.19 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Diego Padres | 57c | 1,923$1,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.89 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Diego Padres | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed San Diego Padres | 57c | 504.26$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.83 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x047f…bf3abacked Miami Marlins | 27c | 405$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.35 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed San Diego Padres | 73c | 256$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.12 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Miami Marlins | 28c | 247$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.16 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed San Diego Padres | 72c | 247$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.16 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed San Diego Padres | 60c | 222.88$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.15 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins | 40c | 213.05$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.31 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed San Diego Padres | 73c | 144$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed San Diego Padres | 57c | 72.38$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce84…cd29backed San Diego Padres | 75c | 26.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked San Diego Padres | 50c | 21.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4930…1196backed San Diego Padres | 57c | 19.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami MarlinsSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.