MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1f4e122740c1267e5109dd290205bc509e173a2bcb12eb995652c2b9d9a38a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof Miami Marlins, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,724
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,598
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,724 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Diego Padres | 33c | 9,718$3,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,543.28 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Diego Padres | 65c | 9,057$5,862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,194.84 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Miami Marlins | 35c | 6,421$2,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,247.34 | 1,586 | 48.5%770 W · 816 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Miami Marlins | 56c | 2,661$1,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,490.16 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked San Diego Padres | 10c | 1,948$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,753.02 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Miami Marlins | 56c | 1,752$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Miami Marlins | 36c | 1,024$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.64 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed San Diego Padres | 42c | 1,017$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Miami Marlins | 58c | 984.31$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.06 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Miami Marlins | 56c | 822.25$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.82 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbf…70a1backed San Diego Padres | 66c | 653.68$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.68 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked San Diego Padres | 41c | 514.5$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.4 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Miami Marlins | 35c | 317$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.27 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Miami Marlins | 36c | 305.57$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Miami Marlins | 35c | 304.54$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.59 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Miami Marlins | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Miami Marlins | 36c | 297.47$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.88 | 1,219 | 53.9%657 W · 562 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…a690backed Miami Marlins | 48c | 286.46$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.5 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed San Diego Padres | 65c | 229.79$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.7 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Miami Marlins | 56c | 222.91$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.83 | 1,022 | 50.6%517 W · 505 L | +54.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed San Diego Padres | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Miami Marlins | 35c | 199$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.65 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1d…f2dfbacked Miami Marlins | 56c | 166$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.96 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Miami Marlins | 36c | 150$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 448 | 45.8%205 W · 243 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Miami Marlins | 36c | 109.68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed San Diego Padres | 65c | 107.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed San Diego Padres | 48c | 100.14$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.07 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Miami Marlins | 51c | 91.38$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…781ebacked San Diego Padres | 65c | 79$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 107 | 59.8%64 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed San Diego Padres | 63c | 74.05$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 965 | 53%511 W · 454 L | +18.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 73.37$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed San Diego Padres | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 467 | 59.7%279 W · 188 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed San Diego Padres | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Miami Marlins | 36c | 54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked San Diego Padres | 65c | 53.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb4…4551backed Miami Marlins | 36c | 42.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 212 | 52.4%111 W · 101 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d3…5639backed Miami Marlins | 36c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 206 | 54.4%112 W · 94 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Miami Marlins | 39c | 35.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed San Diego Padres | 65c | 34.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 1,212 | 50%606 W · 606 L | +5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked Miami Marlins | 62c | 29.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed San Diego Padres | 65c | 24.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x858c…84b1backed San Diego Padres | 65c | 21.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami MarlinsSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.