TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$298,814
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$309,234

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $298,814 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5e94…5ba1backed Over53c212,582$112,603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112,603.348148.6%234 W · 247 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under47c74,413$35,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,392.1911,51952.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L+213.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3a6…71bdbacked Under47c51,000$23,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,03010757.9%62 W · 45 L+9.3wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+17%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Under47c29,074$13,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,409.2273650.7%373 W · 363 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x684b…8409backed Under48c20,000$9,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,399.9827253.7%146 W · 126 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Under47c16,768$7,912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,856.1732451.9%168 W · 156 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa084…bb99backed Under53c15,996$8,418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,578.0211049.1%54 W · 56 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2a0…b16bbacked Over57c8,772$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0009643.8%42 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over45c7,787$3,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,501.578,19246.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L+38.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Over19c7,689$1,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,460.9688446.3%409 W · 475 L+26.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+37.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Under48c5,410$2,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,840.253,50951%1,789 W · 1,720 L+53.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Under47c5,145$2,418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,726.8592554.1%500 W · 425 L+23.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Over51c4,000$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,04050152.5%263 W · 238 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under47c3,722$1,749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,972.441,58648.5%770 W · 816 L-2.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under46c2,542$1,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,375.1310,97951.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L+139.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Under47c2,200$1,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,16645451.3%233 W · 221 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61f1…7aefbacked Under47c2,128$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,127.6639953.6%214 W · 185 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3453…8524backed Under47c2,128$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,127.6639051.5%201 W · 189 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over54c1,971$1,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,073.784,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under55c1,545$846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.34,40544.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L+80.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over49c1,517$739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739.352,09351.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L+44.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Over47c1,161$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.734,36847.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L-79.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Over52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5209655.2%53 W · 43 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Over53c975$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.751,63549.3%806 W · 829 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Under48c973.99$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.471,56951.1%801 W · 768 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under47c816$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.578,40347.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf636…5465backed Under47c748.3$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.69956.6%56 W · 43 L+8.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over39c700$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2731,85544%817 W · 1,038 L-31.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under47c652.14$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.655,47150.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L+21.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Under48c652$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.0485952.6%452 W · 407 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under47c596.49$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.441,53848.6%747 W · 791 L-5.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3f2…22e2backed Over52c557.67$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.99540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Under49c541$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.911,88453%998 W · 886 L+16.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Under46c505.61$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.031,93941.2%799 W · 1,140 L-30.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under57c505.54$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.023,04148%1,461 W · 1,580 L-16.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under69c499.99$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1551,87452%975 W · 899 L+51.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8efa…894cbacked Over53c471$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.6347745.7%218 W · 259 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d67…3667backed Over48c425.75$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.7655645.3%252 W · 304 L-17.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over51c395$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.454,51548.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L-46.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Over48c306.04$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.484,18750.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L+94.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57cc…0fa7backed Under47c288$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.6422448.7%109 W · 115 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Under47c287.98$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.6396553%511 W · 454 L+18.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under48c277.64$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.136,99950.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L+2.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under47c234.06$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.053,84142.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a87…fb21backed Under50c222.11$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.1131352.4%164 W · 149 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Under49c220.9$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.471,84849.6%917 W · 931 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ba4…6de0backed Over54c211.3$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.820945%94 W · 115 L-11.1wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Under49c205$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.551,44550%723 W · 722 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Under46c204.04$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.772,14950.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L+28.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked Over53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10624059.2%142 W · 98 L+18.3wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb428…74c8backed Under47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10644845.8%205 W · 243 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Over39c200$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7831844%140 W · 178 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3123…b44dbacked Under49c200$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10213453.7%72 W · 62 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56cc…d589backed Under47c181.08$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.681,27857%728 W · 550 L+33.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8526…72aabacked Under68c173.59$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.5539653%210 W · 186 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4732…f40dbacked Over48c170.63$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.116539.4%65 W · 100 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bb3…b370backed Under49c165.93$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.6219756.3%111 W · 86 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over52c147$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.442,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x212b…0ba5backed Under47c127.68$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.6753655.8%299 W · 237 L+22.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8aa7…3767backed Under47c127.66$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.664146.3%19 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5dc8…e209backed Under47c127.65$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.6546152.1%240 W · 221 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c91…b4d2backed Under45c127.54$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.1512752.8%67 W · 60 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28e8…6080backed Under47c119.92$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.5648150.7%244 W · 237 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b8d…bb92backed Over50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5059252.7%312 W · 280 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc22e…eab8backed Under47c89.31$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.3348851.6%252 W · 236 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5630…7574backed Under47c85.11$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.1116355.8%91 W · 72 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c31…5380backed Over52c84$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.685250%26 W · 26 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c80…e19bbacked Under48c83.45$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.4422450%112 W · 112 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaedd…ad5bbacked Under47c77.04$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.835764.9%37 W · 20 L+6.3wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+22.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x602d…3534backed Over47c74.47$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358848.9%43 W · 45 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6cdf…58e1backed Under49c71.93$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9346255.8%258 W · 204 L+21.3wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Over50c69.77$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.011,79750.4%906 W · 891 L-1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84a3…44dcbacked Over52c66.28$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4710344.7%46 W · 57 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Under49c63.83$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.551,21953.9%657 W · 562 L+32.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe481…d138backed Over51c56.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3489548.3%432 W · 463 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5b3…461bbacked Over54c55.56$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf655…7f1abacked Under47c55$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.1541236.7%151 W · 261 L-16.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c1e…befebacked Under48c52.36$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.3628553%151 W · 134 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Under47c50.32$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6741141.4%170 W · 241 L-21.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Under77c49$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.271,81949.3%896 W · 923 L-24.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6701…d7d2backed Under69c49$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.1913545.2%61 W · 74 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28f7…404dbacked Over47c48.94$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2347646.2%220 W · 256 L+0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Under49c46.08$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.51,28449.5%635 W · 649 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Under54c45.39$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.081,73749.1%852 W · 885 L+7.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d3…5639backed Under47c44.77$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.7320654.4%112 W · 94 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc49a…c158backed Over54c41$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.141145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Under47c40.74$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.592,99547.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L+12.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x250f…4fc6backed Over25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1013025.4%33 W · 97 L-17.3wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-35.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Under47c37$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.612,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2892…e9d7backed Under48c31.36$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3134846.8%163 W · 185 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Over52c30.01$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.62,41349.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L+22.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Over52c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.61,17249.1%575 W · 597 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a81…9070backed Over52c29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0827252.9%144 W · 128 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Under47c26.9$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.261,21250%606 W · 606 L+5.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b92…93afbacked Over42c25.19$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5842041.9%176 W · 244 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4930…1196backed Over49c25.18$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.441844.4%8 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3bc5…7ac4backed Over52c23.08$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125246.2%24 W · 28 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x70fc…ab12backed Over54c22.41$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.11,37454.2%745 W · 629 L+16.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa94…b3f4backed Under46c22$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.883253.1%17 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa31a…d023backed Under78c21.44$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.728744.8%39 W · 48 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.