Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-01-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ce85e85af8ce7f677986fa1720aa5a77948528a4d15fa0e400261f4abea5191
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,166
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,671
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,166 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 69c | 6,645$4,566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,079.09 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa196…5b78backed Yes | 28c | 3,011$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.99 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x585c…f0a7backed Yes | 28c | 3,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 59 | 23.7%14 W · 45 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 29c | 2,999$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.71 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 36c | 2,513$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.46 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd05f…8777backed Yes | 28c | 2,013$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.66 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -7.8wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b9…948abacked Yes | 28c | 2,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -5.4wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 72c | 2,000$1,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.17 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b62…2e59backed Yes | 28c | 2,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe76f…39fcbacked No | 43c | 1,879$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.15 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Yes | 30c | 1,500$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 42c | 1,321$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.7 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed No | 72c | 1,304$939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.2 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b9…b002backed Yes | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 27c | 937$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.24 | 151 | 34.4%52 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 66c | 632.05$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.93 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed No | 72c | 559.56$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.68 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed No | 73c | 499.99$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…764ebacked Yes | 28c | 380.89$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.65 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 30c | 350$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x814c…7ffabacked Yes | 28c | 290.7$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.85 | 194 | 46.4%90 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd410…3a1bbacked Yes | 29c | 278.86$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.87 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76da…30a2backed No | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed No | 76c | 219$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.47 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02d…16cabacked No | 73c | 205.48$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.48 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed No | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 168 | 50%84 W · 84 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c42…a2bdbacked Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.55 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0613…5204backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9475…a29ebacked Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 27c | 167$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed No | 71c | 165.11$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.88 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 31c | 158.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 165 | 42.4%70 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Yes | 27c | 147$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcf…6c9bbacked No | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 119 | 52.1%62 W · 57 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +5.3wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 30c | 123$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Yes | 28c | 120$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 71c | 116.21$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f56…f1bbbacked No | 44c | 113.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.18 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd7…88d8backed No | 48c | 110$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.8 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 66cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…b1afbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9eb…272dbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x611a…e63ebacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189d…147cbacked No | 71c | 98.59$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…6c3fbacked No | 45c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +8.0wins | +0.21per pick | 47cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 65c | 76.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 30c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 37.4%37 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed No | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…379dbacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 69c | 64.51$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…4320backed Yes | 31c | 64.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x284e…ddb2backed No | 72c | 64$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 20c | 62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Yes | 28c | 59.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 31c | 59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…790dbacked Yes | 30c | 56.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 115 | 40.9%47 W · 68 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 214 | 50%107 W · 107 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Yes | 27c | 42.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…ce69backed No | 72c | 41.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…d24cbacked Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed Yes | 29c | 36.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 258 | 55.4%143 W · 115 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Yes | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 149 | 42.3%63 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x414a…597ebacked No | 71c | 35.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Yes | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 119 | 31.1%37 W · 82 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 58c | 31.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 204 | 36.3%74 W · 130 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed No | 72c | 27.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed No | 72c | 24.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bb…d0d6backed No | 72c | 22.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Yes | 54c | 22.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c8…7c4cbacked No | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…a572backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 107 | 71%76 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 73c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes | 60c | 17.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 160 | 60.6%97 W · 63 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed No | 70c | 15.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb776…1760backed No | 72c | 14.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-01-17?this page
- Will 1. FC Köln vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw?No won
- Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-01-17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.