Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Köln vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc17a1953eb3825fb0a272c707212305349629d02d607e22f059f7eabe8638918
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,884
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,884 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x827f…7f59backed Yes | 28c | 10,150$2,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,847.69 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fa…5b59backed Yes | 27c | 10,000$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed No | 73c | 9,454$6,901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,552.47 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 72c | 6,156$4,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,707.07 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…819ebacked No | 73c | 5,480$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,479.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 71c | 2,625$1,874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.35 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 28c | 2,129$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.55 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…f52fbacked Yes | 27c | 2,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 9c | 1,685$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.12 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…b79abacked Yes | 27c | 1,163$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9671…3a70backed Yes | 3c | 1,110$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 28c | 800.58$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +9.8wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…50f6backed Yes | 65c | 300.21$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x814c…7ffabacked Yes | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 194 | 46.4%90 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked No | 71c | 300$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5151…4e57backed Yes | 28c | 217.86$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4597…272bbacked Yes | 28c | 217.86$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed No | 71c | 186.81$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.34 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0df…8f41backed No | 68c | 179.99$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Yes | 43c | 174.42$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed No | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +5.3wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 27c | 163$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked Yes | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…d58bbacked Yes | 32c | 115.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 55c | 110.33$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.69 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked No | 72c | 99.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb32e…a46abacked Yes | 28c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…790dbacked Yes | 27c | 59.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 115 | 40.9%47 W · 68 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Yes | 28c | 59.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 51c | 59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 165 | 42.4%70 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c88…c9d2backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 214 | 50%107 W · 107 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 258 | 55.4%143 W · 115 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b5…42e7backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +6.6wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 46c | 47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb023…f142backed No | 73c | 43.92$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 27c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 151 | 34.4%52 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…f101backed Yes | 67c | 37.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 73c | 31.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed No | 54c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed No | 74c | 16.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 73c | 14.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 112 | 81.3%91 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Köln vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-01-17?Yes won
- Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-01-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.