Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cf5382fc7acb474e8cd61bbefd77fe3ca3bcd94995eaa3220442b90b1c38632
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,597
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,788
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,597 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 15c | 427.54$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…633dbacked Yes | 13c | 405.53$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 399.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 20c | 330.68$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.28 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4667…20f2backed Yes | 4c | 257.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 7c | 241.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 25c | 186.56$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 21c | 169.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63d9backed Yes | 36c | 151.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.92 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked Yes | 15c | 149.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 10c | 136.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…908fbacked Yes | 8c | 132.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 18c | 118.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 100.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x798c…88d5backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 12c | 99.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 60c | 80.73$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 13c | 78.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 29c | 68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…9724backed Yes | 40c | 65.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6707…f373backed Yes | 39c | 57.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +472.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 49.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 48.18$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 43c | 47.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 64c | 33.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 62c | 29.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 60c | 23.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…8f6cbacked No | 66c | 23.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 61c | 22.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…c5aabacked No | 67c | 18.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x407d…87b0backed No | 76c | 13.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.