Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4fc0e7bf122f1693b22bfe85c8e877247e7b2368e2d78d80d398a4ba4f6253c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $126,671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $146,078
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd615…b09bbacked No | 3c | 64,302$1,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,875.33 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde4c…fa5fbacked No | 1c | 8,555$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.77 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 5c | 696.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 9c | 491.21$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 3c | 442.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc1…2ababacked Yes | 44c | 361.86$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.46 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 65c | 359.44$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.19 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 6c | 355.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 73c | 264.58$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.82 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 70c | 208.45$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.54 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…c5aabacked No | 9c | 201.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 58c | 177.98$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.23 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x982e…f467backed No | 12c | 141.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 16c | 141.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f0…46bebacked Yes | 61c | 139.13$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.29 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5198…4964backed Yes | 47c | 101.61$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.28 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68bf…3e67backed No | 42c | 99.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -42%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 62c | 98.63$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.51 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 42c | 94.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.36 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 49c | 93.7$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.17 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 59c | 77.9$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 38c | 68.48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.52 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 40c | 67.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 61c | 57.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 24c | 57.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 21c | 54.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0a…5270backed Yes | 40c | 53.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 31c | 49.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 49.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 59c | 49.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 59c | 49.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 59c | 48.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63d9backed Yes | 42c | 46.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 44.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c7…3e1dbacked Yes | 57c | 42.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Yes | 41c | 39.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…9724backed Yes | 53c | 36.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed Yes | 43c | 35.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2dc…a474backed Yes | 32c | 34.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 54c | 33.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 30.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 60c | 27.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…8f6cbacked No | 57c | 27.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 46c | 27.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba5…ee07backed Yes | 43c | 26.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d92…ab61backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf547…9ebbbacked No | 55c | 24.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…e8d8backed No | 66c | 24.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 59c | 23.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbef0…bd7abacked Yes | 72c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26bd…2c54backed Yes | 63c | 22.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x72b1…2d82backed No | 61c | 22.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 49c | 21.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 60c | 20.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x798c…88d5backed No | 53c | 19.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.