Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d055ac3ab1dbbb658f453d2c80c0eeed80f1dcfe5bfcc337c5f4d13f1fbdda8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,936
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,947
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,936 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 46c | 600.77$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.85 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 10c | 389.44$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 9c | 304.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed No | 56c | 199.68$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.86 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 17c | 177.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 61c | 136.34$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.83 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 28c | 122.73$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5276…800dbacked Yes | 40c | 118.95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 55c | 114.62$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.58 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 106.5$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 77.85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.94 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 15c | 69.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 31c | 67.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 61c | 65.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 55c | 64.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 20c | 61.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…0669backed Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes | 43c | 56.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f6…b176backed Yes | 45c | 42.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 28cpaid | -88.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 64c | 41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 57c | 38.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 36.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…0988backed No | 55c | 32.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 65c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 30.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df6…b9a7backed Yes | 47c | 29.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 67c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 67c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 69c | 28.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 68c | 27.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x683b…c863backed No | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cb…e8bcbacked Yes | 42c | 26.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 56c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 55c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 57c | 22.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 50c | 20.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcff…8528backed No | 65c | 17.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb5…97d1backed No | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.