Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa106c96eb39861662d883ba8fe31d9d6150f70d97e601e89a33be47c6da217e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,423
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed No | 27c | 530.56$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.63 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 8c | 386.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.41 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 8c | 374.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.47 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 51c | 330.68$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.18 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 6c | 296.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.32 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 14c | 293.55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.97 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 14c | 272.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked No | 42c | 268.92$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.41 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked No | 77c | 250.51$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.59 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 10c | 247.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 49c | 225.28$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.28 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 33c | 218.43$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 56c | 199.68$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.53 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 69c | 187.38$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.38 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 56c | 158.07$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.77 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ad…c303backed No | 8c | 157.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +4.8wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5276…800dbacked Yes | 53c | 156.77$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.94 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x117a…01babacked Yes | 21c | 150.66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.05 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9541…33b5backed Yes | 75c | 135.52$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 62 | 69.4%43 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 74c | 120.6$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 63c | 113.28$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 69c | 105.83$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.19 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 15c | 103.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.83 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a70…76b5backed No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 50c | 99.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.62 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 37c | 95.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes | 40c | 87.93$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.93 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…7752backed No | 60c | 86.77$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.21 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb085…cde9backed Yes | 36c | 84.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.44 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 24c | 84.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.39 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 75c | 75.19$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 78c | 73.2$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74b8…4ec2backed Yes | 25c | 72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.94 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 16c | 71.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 63.68$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…4134backed No | 42c | 56.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 45c | 51.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 28c | 43.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc2…4fc4backed Yes | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd05f…9009backed No | 44c | 38.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ed…0d9abacked Yes | 57c | 35.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 37c | 34.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed No | 37c | 34.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 72c | 32.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 46c | 31.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 49c | 30.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 77c | 30.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 42c | 27.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed Yes | 72c | 22.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 57c | 18.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 63c | 16.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…9c28backed No | 68c | 15.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.