Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 38-39°F on February 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d11ede8110658615d8f74addf48d92dafc8f0278842af34ceb7eb1f63a2e25a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,177
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,499
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,177 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 71c | 684.44$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.02 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 37c | 488.62$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.06 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…76f9backed No | 79c | 254.73$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.73 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 229.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 36c | 192.13$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.02 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1be…3578backed Yes | 24c | 175.65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 11c | 129.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 20c | 120.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 20c | 119.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 21c | 114.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 63c | 111.35$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.52 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 104.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 23c | 100.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d35…3af0backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 23c | 93.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed Yes | 19c | 86.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked Yes | 34c | 82.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 80.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2d95…4212backed No | 69c | 78.89$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d46…cf8bbacked Yes | 29c | 76.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb9…9dbabacked No | 44c | 72.45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 17c | 71.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 30c | 69.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes | 24c | 58.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea4…2bd2backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed Yes | 26c | 55.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xab0f…ee84backed No | 68c | 54.66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 30c | 53.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 62c | 49.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 30c | 46.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed No | 68c | 43.64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed No | 75c | 43.6$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…1f70backed No | 65c | 38.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…a226backed No | 69c | 35.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed No | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 77c | 34.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6e…c955backed Yes | 34c | 33.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…dcebbacked Yes | 51c | 32.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…ee01backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 80 | 72.5%58 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 44c | 25.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99cf…d4d2backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 60c | 20.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed No | 60c | 16.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed No | 76c | 16.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b3…7e80backed No | 77c | 13.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 38-39°F on February 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 35°F or below on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 50°F or higher on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 36-37°F on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on February 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on February 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.