Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on February 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3f624dcfcbbc281ef53e85c7d60e2e1fc8672a6288c2e87d67f6138ad44bbd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,305
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,036
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,305 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeeaa…bea6backed No | 55c | 365.21$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 286.44$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.51 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 64c | 239.02$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.64 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 65c | 203.56$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.81 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 40c | 146.74$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.32 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 34c | 126.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 43c | 122.93$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.93 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 33c | 119.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.39 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 32c | 118.29$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.94 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6422…a30ebacked Yes | 37c | 105.26$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.92 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 40c | 100.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.27 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 52c | 100.23$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.79 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 64c | 97.78$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.8 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11e…1b2dbacked No | 56c | 92.9$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 59c | 84.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 42c | 80$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.77 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…d512backed Yes | 44c | 76.31$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed Yes | 55c | 75.97$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 28c | 72.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.98 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked Yes | 53c | 72.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 59c | 66.02$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab0f…ee84backed No | 58c | 62.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 34c | 56.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.33 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 34c | 55.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x517e…4fb2backed No | 65c | 50.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 90 | 76.7%69 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed Yes | 31c | 47.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 29c | 46.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf864…496fbacked No | 60c | 45.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 55c | 45.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes | 32c | 44.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe23b…8d60backed No | 59c | 44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf45…551fbacked No | 43c | 43.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -5.1wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3d91…42c3backed Yes | 41c | 42.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 24c | 41.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab78…fac0backed Yes | 38c | 39.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 48c | 38.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed Yes | 28c | 37.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd084…27eabacked Yes | 29c | 37.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…3961backed Yes | 34c | 35.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e4c5backed Yes | 46c | 32.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -10.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xab24…31c4backed No | 61c | 32.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01b2…9cf8backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84a4…21c4backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 39c | 28.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 40c | 27.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ea…8208backed Yes | 63c | 26.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 43c | 25.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…14debacked Yes | 42c | 25.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2850…a9d6backed No | 65c | 25.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 42c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 57c | 24.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…b2a8backed Yes | 43c | 23.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 64c | 22.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…dd57backed Yes | 61c | 19.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cde…86c4backed No | 56c | 19.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.24per pick | 59cpaid | -51%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3767…bbc0backed No | 56c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 56c | 17.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c0…f014backed No | 61c | 16.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…c287backed No | 65c | 15.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 70c | 15.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on February 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 35°F or below on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 50°F or higher on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 36-37°F on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 38-39°F on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on February 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.