Mls · resolved market
Will CF Montréal vs. Chicago Fire FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d120c7f7df2a81bafeeb7bd010d8c6d8509d867b547a317dc3f8930109b2767
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,603
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,925
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,603 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 78c | 2,324$1,811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.37 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 26c | 1,589$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.56 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 23c | 1,399$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.92 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked No | 80c | 465.74$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.01 | 102 | 73.5%75 W · 27 L | +13.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 26c | 388.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 74c | 367.3$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.5 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Yes | 13c | 331.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.89 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -8.9wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 74c | 318.66$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.85 | 186 | 55.4%103 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 24c | 232.65$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.84 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e41…ca06backed No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed No | 73c | 200$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.23 | 270 | 58.9%159 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 26c | 198.57$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.63 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed No | 78c | 183.64$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 26c | 166.26$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20bf…2be9backed Yes | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 75c | 137.03$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 21c | 129$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 26c | 125.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed No | 75c | 125$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 74c | 119$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 79c | 102$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 20c | 85.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 74c | 84.95$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed No | 74c | 71.58$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 186 | 51.6%96 W · 90 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 24c | 65.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 249 | 20.9%52 W · 197 L | -19.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc986…1654backed Yes | 23c | 64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf5…52adbacked Yes | 27c | 62.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 74c | 61.76$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…27a0backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5e…e107backed Yes | 25c | 52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 26c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…4e86backed No | 77c | 32.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 80c | 29.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 132 | 59.1%78 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2481…878dbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed No | 74c | 15.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78f4…b240backed No | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CF Montréal vs. Chicago Fire FC end in a draw?this page
- Will CF Montréal win on 2026-05-16?No won
- Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-05-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.