TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-05-16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$202,180
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$210,342

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $202,180 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 188 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb22…6478backed Yes41c103,694$42,515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61,179.5515647.4%74 W · 82 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1eaf…9bf0backed No59c63,080$37,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,217.283351.5%17 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc72d…fc21backed No57c15,000$8,570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,5704062.5%25 W · 15 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+19.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Yes67c13,785$9,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,523.1498945.4%449 W · 540 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes43c8,317$3,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,765.721,27048%610 W · 660 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b1e…82c9backed No41c7,285$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed No59c6,744$3,978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,977.9753040.6%215 W · 315 L-2.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No48c5,373$2,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,604.153,01243.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L-29.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f3a…e8fdbacked No35c4,131$1,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,445.857549.3%37 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x12f9…74babacked Yes41c3,959$1,623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,336.0210273.5%75 W · 27 L+13.5wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+28.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed No17c3,518$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.091,44436.8%532 W · 912 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2e9…1c08backed Yes41c3,000$1,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,770966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+25.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Yes60c2,901$1,743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,157.3448344.9%217 W · 266 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed No36c2,565$922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$922.2299340.1%398 W · 595 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked No57c2,529$1,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,433.0753046.4%246 W · 284 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2cbc…faebbacked Yes42c2,410$1,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,398.01714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick34cpaid-66%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x374a…03edbacked No59c2,400$1,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,41612263.1%77 W · 45 L+10.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+16.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8105…3287backed Yes44c2,250$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2601963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+36.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Yes66c1,900$1,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653.4439567.1%265 W · 130 L+60.8wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+45.3%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed No59c1,836$1,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,083.2423858%138 W · 100 L-0.4wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde76…7d17backed No58c1,710$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.5620%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed No59c1,600$944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94417258.1%100 W · 72 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28dc…a1f2backed No59c1,400$826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8268547.1%40 W · 45 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed No59c1,351$797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$797.144959.2%29 W · 20 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c80…93b5backed Yes42c1,190$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690.489050%45 W · 45 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4064…f741backed No57c1,136$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.75728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick52cpaid-48.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdaaa…ca7dbacked Yes64c1,101$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.61955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed No59c1,000$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59011854.2%64 W · 54 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ae5…6079backed Yes43c1,000$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5701850%9 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed No56c993.28$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.2318655.4%103 W · 83 L+0.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked No58c931.57$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.4872850.7%369 W · 359 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked No59c890$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.113948.9%68 W · 71 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No36c828.71$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.595024%12 W · 38 L-5.4wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-22.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x288a…0048backed No59c800$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47214257.7%82 W · 60 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Yes64c776.94$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.6210644.3%47 W · 59 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-33.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1a6…d584backed No59c700$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41312661.1%77 W · 49 L+8.4wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe75e…4b67backed No59c600$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35413158.8%77 W · 54 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb13…5946backed No59c600$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35415858.2%92 W · 66 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes62c535.55$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.3835247.7%168 W · 184 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40d0…4415backed No57c531.68$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.0611055.5%61 W · 49 L-0.5wins0.00per pick56cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88bf…0933backed No40c500.03$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.272343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca89…7bc4backed No59c500$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29514359.4%85 W · 58 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed Yes66c498.97$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.355100%5 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+53.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd5bf…f0ccbacked Yes40c490.05$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.039555.8%53 W · 42 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+30.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b57…95e1backed Yes62c483.87$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.87250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba1b…82fdbacked No37c476.23$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47c7…cac7backed No58c460$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.89457.4%54 W · 40 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed No28c451.98$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.837726%20 W · 57 L-8.9wins-0.12per pick38cpaid-39.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No58c429.25$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.9797146.1%448 W · 523 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2d2…a1cdbacked Yes76c410.72$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.9311454.4%62 W · 52 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed No59c400$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23616960.9%103 W · 66 L+11.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e61…0e06backed No6c400$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410319.4%20 W · 83 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf859…c775backed No38c388.88$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39f6…abe1backed Yes71c377.3$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.987974.7%59 W · 20 L+10.7wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+26.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed No41c350.24$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.5745140.4%182 W · 269 L-18.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-22.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes57c343$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.7392346.6%430 W · 493 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9212…4040backed Yes72c324.69$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.3413952.5%73 W · 66 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd93…56c0backed No30c323.33$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9718774.3%139 W · 48 L+33.5wins+0.18per pick56cpaid+39.4%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed No57c320.62$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.8668150.8%346 W · 335 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8fd…4373backed Yes63c315.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.143100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+74.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6190…5d90backed Yes64c312.5$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.5742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick65cpaid-29.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8ae3…3c15backed Yes41c304.88$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.88366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+33%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f6a…a7bfbacked No59c300$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17715060%90 W · 60 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed No59c297.12$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.32763%17 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Yes72c296.29$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.2422946.7%107 W · 122 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-29.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed No38c281.84$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.619847.5%94 W · 104 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x606f…b043backed No59c260$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.411759%69 W · 48 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f8b…9e2dbacked No59c260$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.412162%75 W · 46 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+17%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed No57c253.83$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.6680358%466 W · 337 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b78…473dbacked No30c233.33$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7022269.4%154 W · 68 L+31.4wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+33.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked No59c211$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.4937649.7%187 W · 189 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes75c207.72$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.631,26245.2%571 W · 691 L-28.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x234b…f36dbacked No58c200.16$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.0910755.1%59 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec92…6b59backed Yes44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+109.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f81…2bb7backed No59c200$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11815259.9%91 W · 61 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x04a5…d093backed No59c200$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11813461.2%82 W · 52 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd59…2e2fbacked No59c200$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11813560.7%82 W · 53 L+7.9wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed No36c199$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.6412343.9%54 W · 69 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa38e…8917backed No32c183.7$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.27962%49 W · 30 L+8.8wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+37.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe94c…1edebacked Yes45c179.87$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.932755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Yes66c165.44$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.9131446.5%146 W · 168 L-10.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60ab…e297backed No59c160$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.414459.7%86 W · 58 L+7.4wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f8…f4cfbacked Yes62c159.74$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f0c…5292backed Yes63c158.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.731338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d52…aabbbacked Yes63c158.6$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1e0…041bbacked No59c156$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.0414660.3%88 W · 58 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6fa1…6edbbacked No59c156$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.0414459.7%86 W · 58 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed No55c151$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.7754949%269 W · 280 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed No59c143.99$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.9542947.1%202 W · 227 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6134…c8ccbacked Yes41c143.9$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.93479.4%27 W · 7 L+5.9wins+0.17per pick62cpaid+29.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6ed3…0a22backed No59c140$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.616955.6%94 W · 75 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed No58c134.64$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.0913347.4%63 W · 70 L-0.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed No56c131.22$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.4810450%52 W · 52 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xddf1…a604backed Yes60c130.95$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.861877.8%14 W · 4 L+3.4wins+0.19per pick59cpaid+27.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed No58c123.26$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.9170249.7%349 W · 353 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74e0…d590backed No43c116.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501040%4 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-34.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5f7d…3a0cbacked No43c114.6$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc367…a0b4backed Yes63c112.98$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.81330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-47.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x21b5…1db6backed Yes41c109.78$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.771145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Yes78c108.7$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.0136051.9%187 W · 173 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.