Mls · resolved market
Real Salt Lake vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d180140da603221c5f04af8c73273bfd37fbb4a5de57a60451debad38c9e5a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,486
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe85d…ad4bbacked Over | 24c | 3,156$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.38 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 74c | 2,977$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.56 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 26c | 2,860$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.6 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 75c | 2,615$1,954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.44 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 75c | 1,878$1,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.12 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 26c | 1,038$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 76c | 881.19$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.2 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 27c | 653.89$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.55 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 76c | 510.36$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 19c | 500.95$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.99 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 14c | 462.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.76 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…862dbacked Under | 76c | 400.63$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.15 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 21c | 360.33$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.31 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 24c | 299.16$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.18 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 76c | 192$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.41 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 28c | 178.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 25c | 157$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +20.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +40%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 74c | 140$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…1ea8backed Under | 69c | 135$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.9 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 24c | 112.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 13c | 102$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 76c | 101.46$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 24c | 89.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 76c | 85$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 14c | 84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Under | 76c | 67.85$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Under | 75c | 66.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 107 | 55.1%59 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 34c | 56.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Over | 24c | 45.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…19e5backed Under | 76c | 41.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 75c | 33.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 106 | 55.7%59 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Under | 75c | 24.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 76c | 21.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeceb…29a4backed Under | 76c | 20.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Under | 77c | 18.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae4…e4a2backed Under | 76c | 15.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed Under | 77c | 15.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Under | 76c | 15.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Salt Lake vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 4.5this page
- Real Salt Lake vs. Colorado Rapids SC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Salt Lake vs. Colorado Rapids SC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Colorado Rapids SC (-1.5)Real Salt Lake won
- Spread: Real Salt Lake (-1.5)Colorado Rapids SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.