World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d207c937a6115ed2283360c6acf79ee4c2832bf3660f11dd61aab2157a56ab7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,239
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,529
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,239 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 30c | 554.93$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.02 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 56c | 379.59$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.36 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf13a…5469backed Yes | 42c | 238.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 196$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 131.05$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 43c | 124.47$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 54c | 111.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.29 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 103.75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.94 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 29c | 93.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 37c | 88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 37c | 88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -10.7wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 77.14$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 61c | 64.39$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 29c | 64.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 43c | 61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 52.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 62c | 51.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -5.8wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 38c | 49.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 55c | 44.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea5…0b15backed Yes | 42c | 34.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -5.1wins | -0.24per pick | 62cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd62b…ceecbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb1…0f6ebacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 38c | 29.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 70c | 21.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 56c | 20.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5c…767bbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…cd28backed No | 63c | 19.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on August 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.