World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd787846d1bce9b57f9fc0f36964875fc080df0a1ff45b28cb786d1c80795130
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,881
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,898
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,881 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 49c | 1,023$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 403.16$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.79 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 51c | 346$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.46 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 76c | 276.3$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.99 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 24c | 160.62$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.98 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 61c | 147.23$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.15 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 130$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 51c | 116$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.16 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf13a…5469backed Yes | 47c | 106.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.01 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 87$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.24 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 85.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.57 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 38c | 80.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 71.52$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.09 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 60c | 68.89$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cc…015bbacked Yes | 24c | 68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +113.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 46c | 66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.76 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 70c | 64.39$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.81 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 31c | 54.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.94 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ec…17c6backed Yes | 40c | 47.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 67c | 47.25$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 53c | 46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 44.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes | 27c | 41.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 52c | 41.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 38.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 62c | 38.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 54c | 32.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 46c | 32.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 44c | 30.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 30.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed No | 79c | 24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.38per pick | 72cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 47c | 21.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed No | 71c | 20.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…a722backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -27%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c6…d465backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…ea22backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 76c | 16.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.