Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d3b17d95da64199671af44a05268c9e318c7d3ebbe884217e167ccbfcb6f465
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Inner Circle, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,942
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,892
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,942 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc7c…d9d7backed Aurora | 68c | 2,591$1,752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.45 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2733…ac38backed Inner Circle | 38c | 1,847$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.77 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Inner Circle | 16c | 1,411$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.76 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Inner Circle | 22c | 876.93$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.01 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Inner Circle | 26c | 752.65$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.47 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x952a…bdc8backed Aurora | 79c | 564.46$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.12 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3532…3711backed Aurora | 66c | 425.1$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.68 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +7.0wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1d90…1e8bbacked Inner Circle | 39c | 367.6$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Aurora | 78c | 331$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.06 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa918…8d4bbacked Inner Circle | 38c | 320.37$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.67 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ab…e3a9backed Inner Circle | 33c | 295$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.91 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -61%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Inner Circle | 28c | 287.89$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.3 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x06a5…bb96backed Inner Circle | 40c | 248.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6998…ae95backed Inner Circle | 28c | 242.09$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.29 | 168 | 21.4%36 W · 132 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Inner Circle | 21c | 209.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Aurora | 62c | 206.36$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.74 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Inner Circle | 38c | 203.64$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.38 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bf…c63cbacked Inner Circle | 22c | 200.49$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.12 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked Inner Circle | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 228 | 45.6%104 W · 124 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Aurora | 70c | 174.99$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.73 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Aurora | 80c | 112.05$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 336 | 45.5%153 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…89d0backed Aurora | 61c | 111.8$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.37 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Inner Circle | 18c | 106.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc998…f060backed Inner Circle | 31c | 101.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc840…9cf6backed Inner Circle | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed Inner Circle | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Inner Circle | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba6…822abacked Inner Circle | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6438…255bbacked Inner Circle | 23c | 85.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Aurora | 69c | 56.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Inner Circle | 25c | 56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94e5…52bebacked Inner Circle | 36c | 55.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Inner Circle | 28c | 50.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Aurora | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x115d…1691backed Aurora | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 142 | 44.4%63 W · 79 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…8be8backed Inner Circle | 33c | 44.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 182 | 48.4%88 W · 94 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Inner Circle | 35c | 31.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…e3ebbacked Aurora | 74c | 29.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 120 | 61.7%74 W · 46 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Aurora | 66c | 17.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 113 | 48.7%55 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Aurora | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group Stagethis page
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Aurora - Game 1 WinnerInner Circle won
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Aurora - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.