Serie A · resolved market
SS Lazio vs. US Cremonese: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d40638fd2b3c90806a23e9bc5815e36666f20914cd663b51090826fadead069
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,819
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,748
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,819 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 3,227$1,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,516.7 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75dd…171dbacked Over | 75c | 2,660$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 75cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab8…a331backed Over | 48c | 2,507$1,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,212.42 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae94…0c03backed Under | 40c | 2,500$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 64c | 1,696$1,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.51 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 51c | 499$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.51 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…d4debacked Over | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 216 | 50.5%109 W · 107 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 36c | 398.25$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.4 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 73c | 250$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.5 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Over | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 156 | 23.7%37 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 27c | 200$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 314 | 41.4%130 W · 184 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6c…2854backed Over | 73c | 165.14$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.55 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 27c | 157.09$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.68 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 26c | 154.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.63 | 366 | 30.9%113 W · 253 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed Under | 27c | 146$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.58 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3e…0b87backed Over | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 47c | 121.28$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 156 | 48.7%76 W · 80 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Over | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Under | 64c | 98$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Under | 34c | 88.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.22 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d9e…847dbacked Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f6…dc27backed Over | 30c | 85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…a1c4backed Over | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb9…65bfbacked Under | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +267.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 152 | 53.9%82 W · 70 L | -14.7wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x423d…c621backed Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Over | 73c | 46.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…e450backed Over | 36c | 39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18e5…260cbacked Over | 69c | 31.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc39b…5754backed Over | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…bdfcbacked Over | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 53cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 72c | 24.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 69 | 72.5%50 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4e…e3a4backed Over | 73c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf9…142bbacked Over | 73c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…8c58backed Over | 73c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09db…7384backed Over | 73c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da9…ad9ebacked Over | 74c | 18.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SS Lazio vs. US Cremonese: O/U 1.5this page
- SS Lazio vs. US Cremonese: O/U 2.5Under won
- SS Lazio vs. US Cremonese: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: SS Lazio (-1.5)US Cremonese won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.