Serie A · resolved market
SS Lazio vs. US Cremonese: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2c509baf51462998d10ac29adf51efc89a0dc2fe899a5345e42fc566479a889
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,162
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,698
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,162 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 19c | 6,054$1,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,154.34 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 12c | 1,743$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.2 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1402…4853backed Over | 27c | 740.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 39cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Over | 27c | 699.72$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.92 | 208 | 27.9%58 W · 150 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Over | 19c | 630.24$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.75 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 19c | 397.62$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.55 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 25c | 282.47$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.62 | 366 | 30.9%113 W · 253 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04c8…8538backed Under | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 78cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x241e…2de2backed Under | 75c | 255.8$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.95 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 26c | 199.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 314 | 41.4%130 W · 184 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…1d47backed Under | 74c | 167.57$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7175…08f1backed Over | 26c | 134.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 26c | 127.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Under | 74c | 123$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Over | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 289 | 31.8%92 W · 197 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…785ebacked Under | 77c | 67$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 171 | 42.7%73 W · 98 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…a645backed Under | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1f…d9c3backed Under | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 75cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc67b…8217backed Under | 79c | 13.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.79 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SS Lazio vs. US Cremonese: O/U 3.5this page
- SS Lazio vs. US Cremonese: O/U 1.5Under won
- SS Lazio vs. US Cremonese: O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: SS Lazio (-1.5)US Cremonese won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.