Serie A · resolved market
SS Lazio vs. US Cremonese: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x694821fb32bae4a63198ac9bc075d8d546ae91e52a19081581697e470b3d564d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,282
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,301
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,282 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 9,362$4,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,381.59 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 48c | 9,000$4,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,319.99 | 205 | 44.9%92 W · 113 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 48c | 8,918$4,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,280.48 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 52c | 4,056$2,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,938.97 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 52c | 1,500$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 366 | 30.9%113 W · 253 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1402…4853backed Over | 49c | 1,437$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 39cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Over | 49c | 1,138$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.66 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 51c | 764.26$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.49 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 52c | 655.84$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.8 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a34…54c3backed Over | 49c | 632.65$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 22c | 621.74$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.65 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Under | 53c | 570$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.9 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 47c | 549$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.03 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 52c | 468.86$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.46 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Under | 77c | 400$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 47 | 76.6%36 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Under | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 222 | 37.4%83 W · 139 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3e…0b87backed Over | 49c | 201.84$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab9b…d007backed Over | 45c | 173.33$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.32per pick | 56cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…51d4backed Under | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e2…4459backed Over | 49c | 163.29$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.01 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50ca…bfddbacked Over | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9b…f4edbacked Over | 49c | 153.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Under | 52c | 130$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked Under | 52c | 129.16$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Under | 51c | 123.89$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.7 | 168 | 51.2%86 W · 82 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 18c | 123$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 149 | 36.2%54 W · 95 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Over | 27c | 101$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051c…f25dbacked Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Under | 64c | 99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 48c | 95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Under | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 136 | 48.5%66 W · 70 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Over | 49c | 89.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +4.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +42%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…dce6backed Under | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Under | 51c | 79.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 114 | 48.2%55 W · 59 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Over | 47c | 53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 47c | 52.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 372 | 50.5%188 W · 184 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbce5…02f1backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc02a…6f25backed Under | 67c | 41.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Under | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -29%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…c47fbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…2570backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…6d41backed Over | 36c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…668abacked Over | 36c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a07…6ba7backed Under | 53c | 31.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5f…5e78backed Over | 47c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf71c…488bbacked Over | 48c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26fc…2286backed Over | 48c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x143d…5bc4backed Over | 48c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d19…8b58backed Over | 48c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x979f…4e13backed Under | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92bf…0297backed Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 46c | 24.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 314 | 41.4%130 W · 184 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SS Lazio vs. US Cremonese: O/U 2.5this page
- SS Lazio vs. US Cremonese: O/U 1.5Under won
- SS Lazio vs. US Cremonese: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: SS Lazio (-1.5)US Cremonese won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.