TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Penguins vs. Capitals

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Capitalsof Penguins, Capitals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,202
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,456

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,202 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x99c2…ef35backed Penguins6c993.32$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.614949.7%74 W · 75 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-0.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Capitals65c862.81$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.411,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a64…4430backed Penguins9c792.39$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.6131334.8%109 W · 204 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0ad…5176backed Capitals64c723.95$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.6229847%140 W · 158 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe27b…858fbacked Penguins35c660$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.472444.6%323 W · 401 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Capitals68c500$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1601,03955.2%574 W · 465 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Capitals68c500$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.121,03755%570 W · 467 L-0.8wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Penguins35c429$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.1579251.1%405 W · 387 L+21.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc42e…edbdbacked Penguins35c399.97$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.998537.6%32 W · 53 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Penguins36c370$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.275155.8%419 W · 332 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Penguins32c322.13$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.561,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf33…3773backed Capitals65c307$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.38966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+17.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c2d…d44dbacked Penguins35c300$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.29per pick43cpaid-74%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5362…e592backed Penguins34c234.89$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.73955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+90.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Penguins34c221.86$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.0741851.4%215 W · 203 L+14.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed Capitals65c214.08$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.9370249%344 W · 358 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0338…3917backed Capitals65c186.75$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.36966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Penguins34c174.15$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1647249.2%232 W · 240 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf00f…711abacked Capitals63c158$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.4613756.2%77 W · 60 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Penguins34c145.51$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9484051.4%432 W · 408 L+19.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5755…fe34backed Penguins37c130.9$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.33per pick49cpaid-76.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Penguins36c125$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4562944%277 W · 352 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0269…cb2dbacked Penguins35c124.41$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5435545.4%161 W · 194 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fbf…de7bbacked Penguins25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254526.7%12 W · 33 L-5.2wins-0.12per pick38cpaid-28.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x904b…429cbacked Penguins36c99.96$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9850049.4%247 W · 253 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x919f…9dd0backed Penguins36c96.36$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.69540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Capitals75c86.58$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.653,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2873…e190backed Capitals65c82.65$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.91050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0ca…4304backed Capitals65c80.18$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.27475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+17.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82c8…92b2backed Penguins35c75.31$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.36540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-23.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25b7…96d2backed Capitals63c73.64$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.88425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-60.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Penguins35c71$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8558346.5%271 W · 312 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Capitals66c70.49$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.9719150.8%97 W · 94 L-0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60de…0669backed Capitals65c68.77$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.07666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf734…c613backed Penguins37c66.76$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.73729.7%11 W · 26 L-3.8wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-29.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x68b5…cf52backed Penguins36c65.41$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.38560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x523b…1d23backed Capitals65c61.02$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.362100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Capitals79c60.03$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.611,40647%661 W · 745 L+58.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0c3…f88cbacked Penguins34c60$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d77…b3ffbacked Penguins36c55.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2920…80bebacked Capitals66c52.72$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7224945.8%114 W · 135 L-11.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb2ee…2f00backed Capitals68c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164365.1%28 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8175…e4b8backed Capitals76c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121850%9 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd722…2b5bbacked Capitals67c48.75$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.091163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Capitals78c45.45$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101,02540.8%418 W · 607 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c54…c33ebacked Capitals78c44.29$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.65333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick68cpaid-57.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc1d3…981cbacked Penguins35c42.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-51.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Capitals63c40.43$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9681846%376 W · 442 L+4.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4454…a3cfbacked Penguins35c38.6$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.511030%3 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick53cpaid-44.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5f05…9c86backed Capitals67c38.48$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bd4…8643backed Capitals65c38.46$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4618259.9%109 W · 73 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4b32…c3b2backed Capitals64c37$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.32580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+42.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe1f3…1129backed Penguins36c36.58$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.17540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-24.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x180c…6ddcbacked Capitals64c36.53$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.152100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+57.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x357e…2fe3backed Capitals64c35.49$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.774100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+69.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Penguins36c34.76$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5197651.6%504 W · 472 L-3.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eed…4c25backed Penguins36c34.55$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.44616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.29per pick46cpaid-56.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbd0e…dc8cbacked Penguins36c33.94$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.22333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-38.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x09fa…496bbacked Capitals64c33.94$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.22333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-47.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5102…2dc2backed Penguins36c33.75$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c9f…9419backed Penguins33c33.27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.98666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+26.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a69…f002backed Penguins33c33.05$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.91450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cc3…cd5dbacked Penguins32c32.21$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.31250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7442…fdd3backed Penguins33c32.07$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.58742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-10.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc9de…2c00backed Penguins34c31.86$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.83580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+32.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x11da…7602backed Capitals67c31.3$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf8c…4bc2backed Capitals64c31.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2525358.5%148 W · 105 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6aac…4e03backed Penguins33c30.4$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.03450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0775…1f2dbacked Capitals68c30.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.61475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf934…9f73backed Capitals65c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.55046%23 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06f2…589bbacked Penguins35c28.72$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.05333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-52.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaf6…75e1backed Penguins35c28.7$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.05250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeda4…2355backed Capitals65c27.6$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.662100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+96%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Capitals64c26.75$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6385148.5%413 W · 438 L-48.2wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-11.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2dc7…c4d4backed Capitals66c24.55$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.35475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+74.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5b9…b704backed Capitals67c24.55$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+17.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8c…505fbacked Capitals67c23.31$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.69580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+43.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd723…66ecbacked Capitals67c23.03$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+33.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91e4…4d3abacked Capitals67c22.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.35366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5713…ce51backed Capitals64c21.88$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.881573.3%11 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick64cpaid+15%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba4a…705ebacked Capitals66c20.92$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.12333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-49.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x79f1…bfb6backed Capitals63c20.9$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.73560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc05d…b550backed Capitals64c20.51$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.393100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+132.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x121e…8de7backed Capitals65c20.07$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.03560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc11d…498cbacked Capitals64c19.95$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.18771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+48.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21be…8c3bbacked Capitals65c19.73$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.91757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6e8…547ebacked Capitals65c19.64$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.88757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+39%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef45…b376backed Capitals65c19.39$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.78540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0aa…f7acbacked Capitals65c19.23$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.73540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8840…c464backed Capitals64c18.78$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.76944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6767…cf11backed Capitals67c17.75$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.865100%5 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+84%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5fb6…82acbacked Capitals67c17.32$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.725100%5 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+74.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe8dc…ce7bbacked Capitals65c16.62$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.81580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+38.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ecb…ba28backed Capitals66c15.96$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4949…0b0ebacked Capitals67c15.84$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.23425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-62.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x553d…8282backed Capitals66c15.56$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.293100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5b3…f4eebacked Capitals67c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.953852.6%20 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc84a…9099backed Capitals74c14.35$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.73781.1%30 W · 7 L+4.5wins+0.12per pick69cpaid+17.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.