Euroleague · resolved market
Fenerbahce vs. Virtus Bologna
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d5cf1a234d397a82e988ec31473e56ecb5d9abdfab68f5e94d568c9790b383e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fenerbahceof Fenerbahce, Virtus Bologna
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,771
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,771
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,771 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Euroleague | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Virtus Bologna | 36c | 1,506$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.2 | 542 | 51.5%279 W · 263 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe786…b716backed Fenerbahce | 77c | 1,387$1,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed Fenerbahce | 65c | 1,077$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.62 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…e912backed Virtus Bologna | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Virtus Bologna | 24c | 999.89$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.97 | 222 | 31.5%70 W · 152 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe81c…a724backed Fenerbahce | 75c | 892$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Fenerbahce | 76c | 781.58$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.58 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Virtus Bologna | 24c | 567.8$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.05 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Virtus Bologna | 22c | 562.94$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.85 | 275 | 57.5%158 W · 117 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Fenerbahce | 60c | 462.17$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.06 | 343 | 44.3%152 W · 191 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Fenerbahce | 73c | 274.29$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.29 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Fenerbahce | 77c | 255$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.86 | 148 | 47.3%70 W · 78 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Virtus Bologna | 25c | 200.26$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 314 | 46.2%145 W · 169 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe08…10ebbacked Virtus Bologna | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f7…b542backed Virtus Bologna | 26c | 195.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +152.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5204…1ca0backed Virtus Bologna | 44c | 156.82$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0efd…a51cbacked Fenerbahce | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Fenerbahce | 53c | 150$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 114 | 55.3%63 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…7f61backed Virtus Bologna | 26c | 135.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Virtus Bologna | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…fb60backed Fenerbahce | 77c | 110.09$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69bb…23b3backed Virtus Bologna | 35c | 106.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Virtus Bologna | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb91f…06f2backed Fenerbahce | 77c | 66.23$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4341…2421backed Fenerbahce | 72c | 58.53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a3…102cbacked Virtus Bologna | 29c | 42.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Fenerbahce | 64c | 40.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d1…ad22backed Virtus Bologna | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dea…26d5backed Fenerbahce | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x439f…bdedbacked Fenerbahce | 78c | 38.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa741…bd1fbacked Fenerbahce | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 72cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f95…8e86backed Fenerbahce | 75c | 35.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8f…3186backed Fenerbahce | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 73cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…64e1backed Fenerbahce | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce2e…c77bbacked Fenerbahce | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfab1…4e6cbacked Fenerbahce | 78c | 25.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e8…a236backed Fenerbahce | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2664…53f8backed Fenerbahce | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Fenerbahce | 66c | 23.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec8b…152bbacked Fenerbahce | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x686f…19febacked Fenerbahce | 77c | 18.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…5c00backed Fenerbahce | 77c | 16.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.