Serie A · resolved market
Will AC Milan vs. US Lecce end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d65ee833ac682db6dc0a66fbb8c0bfa9969146563f41eb7698715cc5ba444f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $88,907
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,430
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,907 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x567a…9bdbbacked Yes | 0c | 11,160$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65b3…7fc9backed Yes | 0c | 7,025$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5873…f69abacked No | 62c | 6,396$3,965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,431.4 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 27c | 3,490$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.95 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed Yes | 17c | 3,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 100 | 38%38 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 21c | 2,166$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.73 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Yes | 17c | 1,395$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.07 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…b79abacked Yes | 17c | 1,394$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa62d…92e0backed Yes | 17c | 1,390$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | 0%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x274f…fbf4backed Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 455 | 47%214 W · 241 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 17c | 999.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 249 | 39.4%98 W · 151 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 16c | 988.85$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.42 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca66…2305backed Yes | 27c | 674.11$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.01 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3c…0de9backed Yes | 17c | 600$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -6.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 17c | 596.12$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.34 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f99…db70backed Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 29c | 406.95$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 36c | 364.49$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.5 | 346 | 43.4%150 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed No | 65c | 361.88$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.5 | 175 | 29.1%51 W · 124 L | -14.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Yes | 29c | 330$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.7 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | -7.3wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a7…90f4backed Yes | 17c | 275.41$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…0a8dbacked Yes | 16c | 249.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +134.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x749f…714bbacked Yes | 17c | 241.18$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 16c | 230$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 356 | 46.6%166 W · 190 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Yes | 17c | 205.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 127 | 44.1%56 W · 71 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 16c | 202.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 249 | 53.8%134 W · 115 L | +20.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +12%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b35…12b3backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed No | 62c | 199.51$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.14 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59a4…3fd8backed Yes | 18c | 184.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafd4…4432backed Yes | 17c | 180$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked No | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed No | 71c | 150$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 188 | 58.5%110 W · 78 L | +16.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b3…c933backed Yes | 32c | 149.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 18c | 133$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 248 | 49.2%122 W · 126 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada4…c344backed Yes | 17c | 129.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2a…3daebacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 21c | 113.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 129 | 29.5%38 W · 91 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Yes | 12c | 112$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbce1…5555backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab0a…36b1backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked No | 78c | 103.78$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 170 | 58.2%99 W · 71 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7157…7ba4backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…625dbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…6ba8backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x611a…e63ebacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +4.3wins | +0.24per pick | 10cpaid | +202.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5212…29c7backed No | 74c | 94.59$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked Yes | 13c | 77.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3a…9993backed Yes | 17c | 75.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x291b…e36cbacked Yes | 18c | 67.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Yes | 22c | 60.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 150 | 45.3%68 W · 82 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefef…94b8backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7119…f38bbacked No | 75c | 46.28$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf75d…55d2backed Yes | 33c | 36.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3492…9fddbacked No | 66c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 77c | 34.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 467 | 42.8%200 W · 267 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed No | 56c | 29.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…fb77backed No | 77c | 20.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9a…d45cbacked No | 61c | 18.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AC Milan vs. US Lecce end in a draw?this page
- Will AC Milan win on 2026-01-18?Yes won
- Will US Lecce win on 2026-01-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.