Tweets · resolved market
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from August 21 to August 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d6a3b3da036d7b030977244e49aa91d02169cb6ca8d6d578b4a96f68ef9018d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,056
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,945
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,056 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbf9…b9ccbacked Yes | 12c | 626.73$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.53 | 59 | 15.3%9 W · 50 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xceed…f8eebacked Yes | 13c | 400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 258 | 28.3%73 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x732e…0b35backed Yes | 14c | 339.06$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 16c | 299.75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 1,061 | 10.7%113 W · 948 L | -34.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 13c | 228.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 15c | 213$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 72 | 11.1%8 W · 64 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 11c | 196.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 529 | 45.9%243 W · 286 L | -19.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 16c | 123.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 120 | 32.5%39 W · 81 L | -11.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeffd…5aa6backed Yes | 15c | 108.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 108 | 22.2%24 W · 84 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f43…f942backed Yes | 15c | 107$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 19c | 99.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 142 | 31.7%45 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d9…30f2backed Yes | 18c | 65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 187 | 50.3%94 W · 93 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 215 | 57.2%123 W · 92 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87db…e21ebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from August 21 to August 28, 2026?this page
- Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from August 21 to August 28, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from August 21 to August 28, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from August 21 to August 28, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from August 21 to August 28, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.