Tweets · resolved market
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from August 21 to August 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3ad60001508fe2db93fea43700d90906e91dae772d99edef4c36030d4d9d382
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,941
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,417
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,941 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 23c | 700.33$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.17 | 101 | 55.4%56 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x732e…0b35backed No | 25c | 663.11$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.58 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 16c | 441.13$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.95 | 128 | 37.5%48 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf9…b9ccbacked Yes | 61c | 409$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.77 | 59 | 15.3%9 W · 50 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 18c | 374$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.74 | 72 | 11.1%8 W · 64 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 15c | 300$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 407 | 48.4%197 W · 210 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x321e…9292backed No | 18c | 262$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -5.5wins | -0.25per pick | 57cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7787…d002backed Yes | 61c | 246.66$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.86 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.40per pick | 49cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…492cbacked No | 5c | 231$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78a9…63e6backed Yes | 78c | 224.53$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8007…a8f4backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 163 | 49.7%81 W · 82 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 15c | 175.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 229 | 58.1%133 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 33c | 150.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.47 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.31per pick | 49cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 187 | 50.3%94 W · 93 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 38c | 133.23$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.69 | 213 | 48.4%103 W · 110 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 39c | 130.91$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 120 | 32.5%39 W · 81 L | -11.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 38c | 120$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 33c | 112$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 824 | 35.8%295 W · 529 L | -38.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccf…5f6abacked No | 14c | 92.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 19c | 90$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 2,188 | 3.9%85 W · 2,103 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 27c | 83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 36c | 71.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 194 | 58.8%114 W · 80 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 26c | 71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 295 | 48.1%142 W · 153 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f43…f942backed Yes | 56c | 66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d9…30f2backed Yes | 55c | 65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x574b…57c9backed Yes | 67c | 54.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 50.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 529 | 45.9%243 W · 286 L | -19.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 50c | 49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 215 | 57.2%123 W · 92 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4001…5010backed Yes | 29c | 48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 54c | 43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c2…bb4fbacked No | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7871…cca1backed No | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc833…eec3backed No | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 72c | 39.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed Yes | 72c | 38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 38c | 34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed Yes | 64c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 57c | 30.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b6…7e4ebacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87db…e21ebacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb714…18c9backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 75c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 15.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 79 | 64.6%51 W · 28 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…b9f9backed No | 75c | 14.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -34%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from August 21 to August 28, 2026?this page
- Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from August 21 to August 28, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from August 21 to August 28, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from August 21 to August 28, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from August 21 to August 28, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.