MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d6f8d02011419e86951d5c5c3450ad0736d9983563e878c65226b187cd66e21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Chicago Cubs, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,797
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,115
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,797 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Chicago Cubs | 34c | 26,883$9,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,742.78 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | +11.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3672…edbdbacked San Diego Padres | 63c | 25,692$16,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,211.55 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -11.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked San Diego Padres | 66c | 15,000$9,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,900 | 302 | 55.6%168 W · 134 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 34c | 10,424$3,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,922.99 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked San Diego Padres | 66c | 10,008$6,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,604.95 | 550 | 53.6%295 W · 255 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Chicago Cubs | 33c | 10,000$3,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,700 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Chicago Cubs | 51c | 5,500$2,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,675 | 141 | 53.9%76 W · 65 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked San Diego Padres | 15c | 3,827$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.05 | 1,381 | 48.1%664 W · 717 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked San Diego Padres | 66c | 1,983$1,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,308.78 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked San Diego Padres | 65c | 500$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d89…9ddfbacked Chicago Cubs | 35c | 114.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.29 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Chicago Cubs | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Chicago Cubs | 48c | 47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 6,309 | 48.2%3,044 W · 3,265 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Chicago Cubs | 56c | 37.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5def…fd63backed San Diego Padres | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Padres vs. CubsCubs won
- San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.