MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c87f8aad8e8a13fe233199bf4b086d6cc886e8797b1ebe71e5dfe2ff70de342
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,495
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,771
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,495 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Over | 49c | 14,444$7,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,077.56 | 302 | 55.6%168 W · 134 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 51c | 12,698$6,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,222.02 | 631 | 52.6%332 W · 299 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Over | 52c | 4,463$2,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,320.76 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 52c | 3,174$1,658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,516.83 | 115 | 44.3%51 W · 64 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 48c | 2,987$1,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,548.69 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…f62dbacked Under | 52c | 2,885$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,384.62 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd586…87cfbacked Over | 48c | 2,604$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,249.93 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 36cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Over | 48c | 1,853$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890.65 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Over | 47c | 1,471$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.44 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bd17backed Under | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +6.8wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Under | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Under | 50c | 970.59$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.29 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Over | 45c | 512.58$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.66 | 240 | 40.8%98 W · 142 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fce…28f8backed Over | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 97 | 57.7%56 W · 41 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 48c | 450.35$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.17 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 352.02$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.6 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Over | 49c | 327.3$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.03 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 667 | 51.9%346 W · 321 L | +30.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ea…22ecbacked Under | 51c | 249.99$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Under | 60c | 196$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.51 | 1,381 | 48.1%664 W · 717 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Under | 51c | 146.49$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.49 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…6116backed Under | 43c | 120.86$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.89 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc4…306fbacked Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf3…2b57backed Over | 48c | 72.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20a9…c179backed Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 48c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf135…eb06backed Over | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…3462backed Over | 50c | 39.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 51.9%54 W · 50 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ff…f464backed Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5def…fd63backed Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd307…f2b5backed Under | 60c | 23.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab9…c906backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5this page
- Padres vs. CubsCubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.