Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on November 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3dbeb6dcf6daae3aec58e89f3772af7df69e164e5f324d57e212b934640aeee9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,346
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,362
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,346 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e22…3061backed No | 0c | 3,151$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd63c…c0fabacked Yes | 63c | 2,302$1,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.48 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked Yes | 61c | 535.07$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.73 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…36fdbacked No | 6c | 463.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 4c | 410$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d0…af08backed No | 39c | 408.61$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.87 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53e9…492cbacked Yes | 57c | 388.89$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.89 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 9c | 342.48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed No | 6c | 335$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf276…0ddebacked Yes | 65c | 316$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.24 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 60c | 250$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 60c | 243.33$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.72 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…afb9backed Yes | 59c | 221$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.82 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0149…fa64backed Yes | 52c | 210$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…e972backed Yes | 56c | 199.99$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe363…6786backed Yes | 63c | 189.34$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…15e2backed Yes | 50c | 167$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.19 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37e1…d554backed Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x806f…7b97backed Yes | 62c | 156.66$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.53 | 16 | 93.8%15 W · 1 L | +4.6wins | +0.29per pick | 65cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc00a…2424backed Yes | 57c | 156.59$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.59 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 60c | 154.76$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.83 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae3e…5f0bbacked Yes | 65c | 153.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…9655backed Yes | 60c | 151.05$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.42 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…e36ebacked Yes | 65c | 149.98$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 50c | 121.06$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.88 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…4b2bbacked Yes | 64c | 108$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.42 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 42c | 105$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.49 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1578…4b73backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 53c | 91.69$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.57 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 74c | 89.42$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…f6bebacked Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 46c | 82$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…5827backed Yes | 66c | 81.43$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb719…dacbbacked Yes | 57c | 67.9$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…1720backed Yes | 62c | 64.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9b…f309backed Yes | 59c | 64.31$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb887…649dbacked Yes | 70c | 64.29$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2336…9e65backed Yes | 49c | 62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaed2…8e93backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d96…2d92backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…7828backed Yes | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a6…fc76backed Yes | 70c | 32.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be3…1404backed Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…d820backed Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 254 | 36.6%93 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3e…8577backed Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 66c | 28.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 47c | 26.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4d…0e7fbacked Yes | 80c | 26.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x520f…2d92backed Yes | 43c | 24.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 60c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x869b…7ab2backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 52c | 19.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x327f…1dd2backed Yes | 59c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…390fbacked Yes | 69c | 15.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on November 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 41°F or below on November 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 52°F or higher on November 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on November 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 44-45°F on November 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 48-49°F on November 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 50-51°F on November 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.