Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 48-49°F on November 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e9e0043c5f2437a2411ae0697440777f59d18b7b49203a6ee2ff2c2b4529a53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,856
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,468
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,856 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd4d0…af08backed Yes | 43c | 3,218$1,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,378.28 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 25c | 1,734$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 1c | 999.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 5c | 957.35$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c0…d212backed Yes | 35c | 873.91$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.09 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd63c…c0fabacked No | 58c | 718.32$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.5 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 4c | 718.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 11c | 676.42$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34f3…48e4backed No | 69c | 579.79$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.65 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5778…4581backed Yes | 28c | 519.96$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.59 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…f9e3backed No | 70c | 500$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…f204backed Yes | 30c | 370.7$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.81 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | +17.9wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x327f…1dd2backed Yes | 6c | 362.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed No | 64c | 342.32$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.24 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1578…4b73backed Yes | 9c | 338.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 25c | 300.01$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 19c | 225.44$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.03 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4aa…a540backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…afb9backed No | 78c | 197$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.31 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…e36ebacked Yes | 21c | 149.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 36c | 148.88$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.94 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3e…8577backed Yes | 30c | 145$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 27c | 141.69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 34c | 140.47$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 62c | 134.9$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.61 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 132.9$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 13c | 114$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.16 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…0861backed Yes | 32c | 100.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 247 | 10.5%26 W · 221 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 64c | 96.01$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.27 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 33c | 89.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b4…d1ebbacked Yes | 38c | 74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7550…60f9backed Yes | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e3cabacked Yes | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…36fdbacked No | 29c | 65.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.77 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57dd…6ab4backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 72c | 54.44$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked No | 62c | 51.61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 50.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…4b2bbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6946…bdeebacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d65…589ebacked No | 69c | 36.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03b6…77ffbacked Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 64c | 27.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x869b…7ab2backed No | 67c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…4e46backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…1757backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 48-49°F on November 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 41°F or below on November 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 52°F or higher on November 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on November 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 44-45°F on November 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on November 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 50-51°F on November 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.