Premier League · resolved market
Will Germany win Group A?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3dc69a2da7f4c9c4c7d558b2c2b884f66000475bce834e884c92eec96d2bf1c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,932
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,932 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96c4…bfdebacked No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed No | 18c | 3,994$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.81 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 14c | 3,749$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.26 | 153 | 28.8%44 W · 109 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…007dbacked No | 20c | 3,005$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.9 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed No | 14c | 2,774$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.86 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Yes | 80c | 880$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 196 | 52%102 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 6c | 433.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d70…4ba5backed Yes | 80c | 375$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x063b…7328backed Yes | 80c | 375$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked No | 16c | 332.78$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.03 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x472a…9033backed Yes | 80c | 330.79$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ca…7094backed Yes | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 79c | 231.98$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.94 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb83f…b17ebacked Yes | 80c | 187.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c8…1d90backed Yes | 80c | 187.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Yes | 80c | 180$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…6a3dbacked Yes | 80c | 165.89$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb04d…8a54backed Yes | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f8…2478backed No | 16c | 145.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9921…5440backed Yes | 80c | 126.25$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec5…9fe0backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 65cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…e881backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa0…10b4backed Yes | 80c | 124.2$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…cafabacked Yes | 80c | 96.25$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0476…5794backed Yes | 80c | 87.5$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb3…92a1backed Yes | 80c | 81.25$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f24…513ebacked No | 16c | 67.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf656…9d40backed Yes | 80c | 65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edd…9ea5backed Yes | 80c | 63.75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0152…f266backed Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ae…8594backed Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +105%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe681…f4d1backed Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeada…1667backed Yes | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e07…6a8ebacked Yes | 80c | 51.16$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb1…bdc4backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c96…12e1backed Yes | 80c | 41.25$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9b…a123backed Yes | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd686…5c67backed Yes | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a92…83dabacked Yes | 80c | 37.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…baa4backed Yes | 80c | 26.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce22…bc37backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4810…8571backed Yes | 80c | 20.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe36a…7c4bbacked Yes | 80c | 18.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91de…0b43backed Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f5…6e69backed Yes | 80c | 14.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c8…d422backed Yes | 80c | 14.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13ea…f66bbacked Yes | 80c | 13.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbef2…6d75backed Yes | 80c | 13.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8525backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8012…5e3bbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x289a…1909backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -49%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x24cd…cb82backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0efc…f000backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4326…3ba9backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b76…785cbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cb…6781backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd109…ef1dbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d4…4301backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…8cf6backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878c…2e6bbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3f…896dbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x276a…d445backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…ada1backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71f8…6efebacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1a…4fdbbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a29…452fbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Germany win Group A?this page
- Will Hungary win Group A?No won
- Will Switzerland win Group A?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.