MLB · resolved market
Nationals vs. Reds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3dd5bf7c6c433104a0218bd15af03b9ef12ef94becb1fd4585e43832d597e9df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Redsof Nationals, Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $94,252
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,252 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbe10…2a3fbacked Reds | 60c | 60,005$36,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,002 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa14…5133backed Nationals | 40c | 50,005$20,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,002 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ee…dd52backed Nationals | 40c | 10,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4a…311cbacked Nationals | 36c | 8,263$2,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,974.68 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked Reds | 66c | 5,010$3,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,715.47 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Reds | 64c | 3,780$2,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,367.8 | 114 | 56.1%64 W · 50 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b1…6f55backed Nationals | 38c | 2,632$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…d82cbacked Reds | 64c | 2,046$1,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.56 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Reds | 64c | 2,000$1,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.75 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c46…2d80backed Reds | 63c | 1,200$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Reds | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe97d…5e65backed Nationals | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Nationals | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Reds | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Reds | 61c | 981.92$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.92 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Nationals | 38c | 905.05$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.92 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Reds | 63c | 888$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.56 | 764 | 56%428 W · 336 L | +32.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Nationals | 38c | 842.11$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Nationals | 35c | 823.89$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.36 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Reds | 63c | 800$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296 | 416 | 43.8%182 W · 234 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e2…721bbacked Reds | 64c | 705$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.8 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 65cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Reds | 62c | 683.43$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.7 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Nationals | 37c | 530.28$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.2 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Reds | 63c | 504$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.48 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Reds | 69c | 400$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Reds | 63c | 325$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.25 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Reds | 62c | 322.92$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.92 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Reds | 63c | 279.28$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.33 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Nationals | 12c | 259.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 475 | 4.4%21 W · 454 L | -20.9wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x970c…b40dbacked Nationals | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Reds | 63c | 165.67$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.3 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Reds | 63c | 165.47$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.62 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Reds | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Nationals | 35c | 140.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Reds | 65c | 135.8$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.84 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Nationals | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Reds | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Reds | 62c | 88$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Nationals | 33c | 88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d4…ae49backed Reds | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Reds | 61c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 160 | 55.6%89 W · 71 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Nationals | 37c | 48.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Reds | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Nationals | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Reds | 72c | 32.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Reds | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…15ddbacked Reds | 65c | 19.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Reds | 65c | 16.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.