Tennis · resolved market
Terra Wortmann: Bublik vs. Sinner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3deae74772cc71230b5665fe3dfe95816eff082a100ca8e1ddd795f339296d29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bublikof Bublik, Sinner
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,781
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,551
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,781 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x781c…db68backed Sinner | 18c | 7,341$1,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,325.66 | 101 | 38.6%39 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Bublik | 8c | 4,489$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,150.56 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Bublik | 43c | 3,862$1,654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,208.29 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Bublik | 49c | 3,617$1,762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,855.15 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Bublik | 13c | 3,286$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,865.57 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -33%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bublik | 12c | 2,496$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,194.25 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Bublik | 29c | 2,439$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,734.39 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Bublik | 13c | 2,308$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,016.29 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cd…bb91backed Sinner | 68c | 2,094$1,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,430.55 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Bublik | 13c | 999.98$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$869.98 | 220 | 21.8%48 W · 172 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d6…0062backed Bublik | 58c | 719.4$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.4 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Bublik | 12c | 660.14$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.6 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Bublik | 15c | 654.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.99 | 476 | 39.1%186 W · 290 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Sinner | 9c | 561.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Bublik | 3c | 516.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4f…ce53backed Sinner | 9c | 430$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +117.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03a6…1198backed Bublik | 6c | 400$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.43 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f7…58dbbacked Bublik | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.14 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Bublik | 6c | 312.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.83 | 267 | 46.1%123 W · 144 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Bublik | 8c | 304.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.75 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6332…6128backed Bublik | 22c | 268.37$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.37 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa810…fd25backed Sinner | 10c | 266.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Sinner | 18c | 204$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ab…f39ebacked Sinner | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad98…8733backed Bublik | 13c | 189.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.92 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Bublik | 12c | 133$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.04 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef13…53d2backed Sinner | 21c | 119.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 250 | 43.2%108 W · 142 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Sinner | 38c | 107.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked Bublik | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 252 | 44.4%112 W · 140 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad6…459fbacked Bublik | 14c | 86.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +261.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a2…b5a2backed Bublik | 15c | 73.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +157.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c54…cc1ebacked Sinner | 75c | 66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21cd…e7aabacked Bublik | 17c | 63.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.23 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea1c…0868backed Bublik | 22c | 57.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…7504backed Bublik | 50c | 30.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.