South American Leagues · resolved market
CD Guadalajara vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e01ef17ab728acb08747acd73585a23201ead2773b64633b88ae9e4e8805fa3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,419
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,013
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,419 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 46c | 827.62$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.42 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f14…29d1backed Over | 39c | 799.45$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.89 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d5…442bbacked Over | 54c | 752$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…edacbacked Over | 48c | 625$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 52c | 559$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.68 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 45c | 536.17$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.69 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4502…9eedbacked Over | 54c | 460.37$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.88 | 160 | 51.3%82 W · 78 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f39…e279backed Over | 53c | 423.97$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 170 | 51.8%88 W · 82 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 47c | 399.32$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.16 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x677e…4a1fbacked Over | 46c | 374.55$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.9 | 113 | 28.3%32 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 62c | 301.92$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.19 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 49c | 264.87$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.05 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 59c | 216.25$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.59 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Under | 48c | 215.16$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.22 | 274 | 42%115 W · 159 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 176.4$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.74 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…3593backed Under | 54c | 122.62$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.45 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31ac…8b4cbacked Over | 74c | 88.08$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8b…da36backed Under | 62c | 76.85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa681…8b89backed Over | 33c | 49.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8c…8f2bbacked Under | 62c | 39.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…83adbacked Under | 62c | 37.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd36…6674backed Over | 54c | 34.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf56d…3658backed Under | 62c | 33.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e8…eebfbacked Under | 62c | 33.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Under | 43c | 23.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf80…3259backed Over | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 104 | 46.2%48 W · 56 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe766…7843backed Over | 77c | 19.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CD Guadalajara vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5this page
- CD Guadalajara vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- CD Guadalajara vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- CD Guadalajara vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CD Guadalajara vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: CD Guadalajara O/U 0.5Under won
- CD Guadalajara vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: CD Guadalajara O/U 1.5Under won
- CD Guadalajara vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- CD Guadalajara vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- CD Guadalajara vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- CD Guadalajara vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- CD Guadalajara vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- CD Guadalajara vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CD Guadalajara (-1.5)Deportivo Toluca FC won
- Spread: CD Guadalajara (-2.5)Deportivo Toluca FC won
- Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-1.5)Deportivo Toluca FC won
- Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-2.5)CD Guadalajara won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.