South American Leagues · resolved market
CD Guadalajara vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd373892b1be18db7aa054e54a1097067f22db0015640143db4accc16e87d5fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,097
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,551
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,097 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 59c | 16,671$9,865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,805.79 | 313 | 49.8%156 W · 157 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 40c | 11,203$4,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,446.2 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bf…b8e1backed Under | 3c | 6,359$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.78 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 35c | 2,192$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.62 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4348…f08abacked Under | 35c | 2,039$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.32 | 111 | 43.2%48 W · 63 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf5…2307backed Over | 67c | 2,021$1,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.81 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 30c | 976.99$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.28 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 38c | 902.7$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.92 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b79…b1bebacked Over | 59c | 847.45$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.45 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f39…311abacked Over | 62c | 748$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.24 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 79c | 730.25$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.88 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 41c | 513$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.8 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 37c | 489.24$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.02 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 21c | 444.89$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.89 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f6…73fabacked Over | 74c | 405.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.41 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 61c | 343.64$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.64 | 457 | 46.8%214 W · 243 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 36c | 317.64$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.75 | 311 | 36.7%114 W · 197 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 26c | 279.5$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.14 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Under | 19c | 241.74$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.93 | 123 | 31.7%39 W · 84 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc29…383bbacked Under | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.23per pick | 41cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Under | 36c | 158.33$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…004dbacked Under | 7c | 155.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 37c | 150.64$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.11 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 35c | 139.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.11 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Under | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Under | 20c | 137.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 197 | 11.2%22 W · 175 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 34c | 130$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 151 | 43%65 W · 86 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 37c | 127.49$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 20c | 126.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Under | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 105 | 13.3%14 W · 91 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 43c | 123.26$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…a8e0backed Under | 30c | 122.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.21 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 43c | 118.6$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…3593backed Over | 66c | 113$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Under | 19c | 110.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 208 | 46.6%97 W · 111 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…4f9dbacked Over | 64c | 101.49$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.86 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Under | 36c | 100.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Under | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 36c | 89.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec5…fd53backed Under | 19c | 87.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 200 | 36.5%73 W · 127 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…fae9backed Over | 62c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 34c | 68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4c…6047backed Over | 67c | 67.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 72cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 74c | 64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 519 | 45.7%237 W · 282 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 80c | 59.51$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 668 | 37.1%248 W · 420 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 39c | 53.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over | 75c | 51.54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 350 | 46.3%162 W · 188 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…8048backed Over | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 44 | 77.3%34 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69d8…61b1backed Over | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 30c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Over | 68c | 25.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 76c | 25.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 217 | 65.4%142 W · 75 L | +24.1wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 485 | 47.6%231 W · 254 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e95…2bb7backed Over | 68c | 22.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.91 | 206 | 65%134 W · 72 L | +24.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddb…0c47backed Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CD Guadalajara vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 1.5this page
- CD Guadalajara vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- CD Guadalajara vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- CD Guadalajara vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- CD Guadalajara vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CD Guadalajara vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: CD Guadalajara O/U 0.5Under won
- CD Guadalajara vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: CD Guadalajara O/U 1.5Under won
- CD Guadalajara vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- CD Guadalajara vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- CD Guadalajara vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- CD Guadalajara vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- CD Guadalajara vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CD Guadalajara (-1.5)Deportivo Toluca FC won
- Spread: CD Guadalajara (-2.5)Deportivo Toluca FC won
- Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-1.5)Deportivo Toluca FC won
- Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-2.5)CD Guadalajara won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.