South American Leagues · resolved market
CD Guadalajara vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67846b895f1a04ddcd03ea5d90358257f45de35d5a9de33e0bd4c7474900e559
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,102
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,326
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,102 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0874…6277backed Yes | 24c | 2,061$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.65 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -84.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 71c | 2,037$1,453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.3 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 41c | 826.65$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.48 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b8…36ddbacked Yes | 60c | 496.11$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc39…398abacked Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 40c | 172.23$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.68 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425a…c41ebacked Yes | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked No | 40c | 127.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.79 | 179 | 51.4%92 W · 87 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 58c | 114.88$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.97 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 54c | 102.21$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.43 | 519 | 45.7%237 W · 282 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 31c | 101.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 60c | 79.38$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.63 | 668 | 37.1%248 W · 420 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc27…02a8backed Yes | 53c | 75.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Yes | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 55c | 65.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 506 | 43.9%222 W · 284 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e24…b31fbacked Yes | 61c | 62.3$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d20…05c8backed Yes | 60c | 55.52$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 23c | 54.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 517 | 50.7%262 W · 255 L | +28.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9786…1e9abacked Yes | 53c | 49.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed No | 45c | 46.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed No | 39c | 44.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 404 | 51.2%207 W · 197 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac52…b882backed Yes | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x970e…613ebacked Yes | 54c | 40.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…2026backed Yes | 45c | 33.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 40c | 27.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 424 | 62.3%264 W · 160 L | +24.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed No | 44c | 27.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 119 | 44.5%53 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Yes | 55c | 22.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 350 | 46.3%162 W · 188 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CD Guadalajara vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- CD Guadalajara vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- CD Guadalajara vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- CD Guadalajara vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- CD Guadalajara vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: CD Guadalajara O/U 0.5Under won
- CD Guadalajara vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: CD Guadalajara O/U 1.5Under won
- CD Guadalajara vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- CD Guadalajara vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- CD Guadalajara vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- CD Guadalajara vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- CD Guadalajara vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- CD Guadalajara vs. Deportivo Toluca FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CD Guadalajara (-1.5)Deportivo Toluca FC won
- Spread: CD Guadalajara (-2.5)Deportivo Toluca FC won
- Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-1.5)Deportivo Toluca FC won
- Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-2.5)CD Guadalajara won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.