Fifa International · resolved market
Will Ecuador vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e0fc3d25162c7d5b2c05ab78e09314cfbfcd9da9015a475b832bdb27ecb5e3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,047
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,047 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Yes | 14c | 6,455$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.94 | 1,224 | 43.4%531 W · 693 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 17c | 1,560$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.54 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Yes | 27c | 1,452$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.91 | 617 | 50.6%312 W · 305 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52ec…5124backed Yes | 19c | 631.58$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf6…0e3bbacked Yes | 17c | 549.01$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 265 | 34%90 W · 175 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 72c | 421.32$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.04 | 239 | 40.6%97 W · 142 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa386…cb0fbacked Yes | 23c | 398.09$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.56 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 30c | 320$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.66 | 935 | 42.2%395 W · 540 L | -27.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Yes | 25c | 280$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 279 | 51.6%144 W · 135 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 13c | 250$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 73c | 227.09$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.59 | 233 | 45.1%105 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 20c | 135$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 1,354 | 38.9%527 W · 827 L | -55.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 77c | 125$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 815 | 54.8%447 W · 368 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b9…a04bbacked Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed No | 78c | 102$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 1,985 | 32.5%645 W · 1,340 L | -47.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Yes | 22c | 102$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 472 | 35%165 W · 307 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed No | 75c | 101.36$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…bab7backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Yes | 17c | 78.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 146 | 47.3%69 W · 77 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 76c | 66.51$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 3,213 | 47.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Yes | 23c | 64.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 1,873 | 48.4%906 W · 967 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked No | 77c | 63.1$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 167 | 58.7%98 W · 69 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd875…19cfbacked Yes | 28c | 57.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 228 | 24.6%56 W · 172 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 24c | 55.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 1,560 | 43.8%684 W · 876 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed Yes | 28c | 54.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Yes | 23c | 49.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd533…8389backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 117 | 55.6%65 W · 52 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ecuador vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?this page
- Will Ecuador win on 2026-05-30?Yes won
- Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-05-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.