Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e1af915ce0114aafadd177d95d6a50bd792fa3732beaf9abb55741c6ba9fa7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,128
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,954
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,128 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x14db…7cafbacked No | 46c | 324.29$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.33 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 40c | 319.31$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c55…ddfbbacked Yes | 37c | 223.15$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.85 | 117 | 24.8%29 W · 88 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 215.44$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd00…d1afbacked Yes | 62c | 137.34$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.85 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 41c | 98.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 89.23$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 75c | 80.81$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 24c | 68.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…167ebacked Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabcd…6771backed Yes | 35c | 57.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 55.01$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 35c | 54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 49c | 52.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…d09cbacked No | 65c | 50.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 59c | 43.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0366…ec39backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 31c | 39.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 60c | 28.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 53c | 28.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…a228backed No | 47c | 23.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffee…ea6bbacked Yes | 53c | 21.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 60c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7a…8465backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e3…6863backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d3…a178backed No | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 75c | 18.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed Yes | 57c | 18.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on July 7?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on July 7?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on July 7?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on July 7?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on July 7?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 22°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.