Ligue 1 · resolved market
Olympique de Marseille vs. FC Nantes: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e20dccaf7052eb52c15d4e195c58d7763ccb86a5b95b442a6da16492303bd52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,713
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,271
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,713 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Over | 45c | 5,835$2,614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,614.22 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 56c | 3,063$1,727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,335.98 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe09…7acebacked Under | 78c | 2,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 62cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 56c | 1,173$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.12 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 42c | 1,005$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.05 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd382…8885backed Under | 80c | 985.03$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 43c | 862.47$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.86 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 23c | 824.22$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.91 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 16c | 560.57$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.95 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 57c | 444$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.92 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +10.6wins | +0.29per pick | 47cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 57c | 404.65$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc31d…4ebebacked Over | 44c | 265$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Under | 59c | 251.17$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.55 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 29c | 170$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Over | 42c | 105$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Over | 43c | 84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Over | 42c | 78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 58c | 74.24$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.98 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x394a…536ebacked Over | 45c | 55.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…21f6backed Over | 41c | 39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf683…f2dfbacked Under | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c8…2cb0backed Under | 58c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfadc…a4e8backed Under | 59c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed Under | 59c | 22.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +6.0wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8655…0853backed Under | 58c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x934a…9096backed Under | 55c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb7…8745backed Under | 58c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b9…48fabacked Under | 57c | 18.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9840…cb31backed Under | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd253…14d9backed Under | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 61cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Olympique de Marseille vs. FC Nantes: O/U 3.5this page
- Olympique de Marseille vs. FC Nantes: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. FC Nantes: O/U 1.5Over won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. FC Nantes: O/U 2.5Under won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. FC Nantes: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-2.5)FC Nantes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.