Ligue 1 · resolved market
Olympique de Marseille vs. FC Nantes: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc75cd548acedb301338a910bbe336cec2e1605921a5123ae77e765f7686dacc8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,515
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,051
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,515 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7702…13d1backed Over | 56c | 3,184$1,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,790.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 45c | 1,833$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,011.42 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 27c | 1,746$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.66 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 41c | 1,509$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.71 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 35c | 1,500$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.79 | 173 | 29.5%51 W · 122 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3414…067abacked Over | 47c | 1,103$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Under | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 50c | 912$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456 | 376 | 38.8%146 W · 230 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 34c | 443.81$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.91 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +10.6wins | +0.29per pick | 47cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 40c | 409$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.2 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 44c | 319$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.8 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d29…5111backed Under | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 67cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 44c | 250$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Over | 65c | 212.31$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 232 | 50.9%118 W · 114 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed Under | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +6.0wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbb40…fd19backed Under | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2969…6d76backed Under | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Under | 36c | 106$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 45c | 100.12$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.98 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +6.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3490backed Over | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 35c | 71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Under | 34c | 69.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.19 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed Under | 36c | 57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 43c | 54.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Over | 65c | 53.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Over | 50c | 49.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23e8…60b1backed Under | 37c | 38.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc87…d938backed Over | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 63c | 37.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70e6…29b1backed Under | 37c | 37.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 35c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 183 | 60.7%111 W · 72 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc8…8198backed Over | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 240 | 51.7%124 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Under | 35c | 30.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86a…9ed1backed Over | 64c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e3…7d97backed Over | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc16…492bbacked Over | 65c | 21.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78b2…dd6dbacked Over | 66c | 21.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…b3a8backed Over | 65c | 20.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 53cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e60…18dcbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.34per pick | 51cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x263e…9e3abacked Over | 65c | 18.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f25…1e6ebacked Over | 67c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3e…390fbacked Over | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Olympique de Marseille vs. FC Nantes: O/U 2.5this page
- Olympique de Marseille vs. FC Nantes: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. FC Nantes: O/U 1.5Over won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. FC Nantes: O/U 3.5Under won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. FC Nantes: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-2.5)FC Nantes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.