Ligue 1 · resolved market
Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x500b4027d0fdf0e1a7f2709419b726485476e955c86393151190467b739d618d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Nantesof Olympique de Marseille, FC Nantes
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,204
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,205
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,204 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Olympique de Marseille | 35c | 10,281$3,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,552.28 | 231 | 51.5%119 W · 112 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed FC Nantes | 66c | 7,580$4,965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,614.42 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed FC Nantes | 66c | 5,357$3,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,828.25 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Olympique de Marseille | 34c | 5,000$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24d8…e8a8backed FC Nantes | 65c | 1,146$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.03 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed FC Nantes | 66c | 478.74$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.77 | 310 | 49.4%153 W · 157 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed FC Nantes | 65c | 348.12$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.84 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +6.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked FC Nantes | 66c | 330.58$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.4 | 154 | 55.2%85 W · 69 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff8…aa3abacked Olympique de Marseille | 34c | 320$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed FC Nantes | 65c | 313.93$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.88 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Olympique de Marseille | 34c | 229$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.86 | 170 | 43.5%74 W · 96 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed Olympique de Marseille | 34c | 114$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed FC Nantes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked FC Nantes | 65c | 71.86$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked FC Nantes | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed Olympique de Marseille | 34c | 49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed FC Nantes | 66c | 42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +5.3wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x48eb…8ec4backed Olympique de Marseille | 35c | 39.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3b…5008backed Olympique de Marseille | 35c | 32.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43a…f530backed FC Nantes | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Olympique de Marseille | 35c | 29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6966…409bbacked FC Nantes | 66c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked FC Nantes | 65c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07a4…be3abacked FC Nantes | 66c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f4…911dbacked FC Nantes | 67c | 21.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…e450backed FC Nantes | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…5548backed FC Nantes | 66c | 20.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…0751backed FC Nantes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…22c4backed FC Nantes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed FC Nantes | 64c | 17.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa62c…9a08backed FC Nantes | 67c | 16.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa27…dbdcbacked FC Nantes | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-2.5)this page
- Olympique de Marseille vs. FC Nantes: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. FC Nantes: O/U 1.5Over won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. FC Nantes: O/U 2.5Under won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. FC Nantes: O/U 3.5Under won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. FC Nantes: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.