Ligue 1 · resolved market
Olympique de Marseille vs. FC Nantes: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c1a71c1c4044a6f31a0f7bf39d216a817739dee9759f1e4f2aa01d33f76e90f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,221
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,978
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,221 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8230…5121backed Under | 2c | 3,644$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.88 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +869.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 69c | 3,450$2,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080.42 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 32c | 2,790$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.49 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 15c | 1,500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 173 | 29.5%51 W · 122 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d8…9762backed Under | 4c | 1,363$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.52 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 61c | 730.57$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.04 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb1…984ebacked Under | 44c | 400.04$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 17c | 400$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…e89dbacked Over | 76c | 394.99$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…e682backed Over | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 32c | 129.16$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 14c | 115.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +10.6wins | +0.29per pick | 47cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…3f6bbacked Over | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Under | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2969…6d76backed Under | 21c | 96.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Under | 16c | 82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Over | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc44…3b40backed Over | 59c | 73$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 74c | 61.91$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1415backed Over | 65c | 61.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Over | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Over | 54c | 55.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 76c | 42.11$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 183 | 60.7%111 W · 72 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 50c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 376 | 38.8%146 W · 230 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb524…0808backed Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Olympique de Marseille vs. FC Nantes: O/U 1.5this page
- Olympique de Marseille vs. FC Nantes: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. FC Nantes: O/U 2.5Under won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. FC Nantes: O/U 3.5Under won
- Olympique de Marseille vs. FC Nantes: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-2.5)FC Nantes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.