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MLB · resolved market

Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Miami Marlinsof Miami Marlins, Boston Red Sox
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,847
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,142

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,847 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Miami Marlins37c2,937$1,073 inWon+$1,864.311,10251.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L+135.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Boston Red Sox63c2,181$1,374 inLost-$1,373.924,12057.6%2,375 W · 1,745 L+67.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins10c912.55$93 inWon+$819.8411,65352.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L+214.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Boston Red Sox63c219.37$138 inLost-$138.341,26758.5%741 W · 526 L+26.4wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05c5…6a69backed Boston Red Sox63c217.41$137 inLost-$137.153357.6%307 W · 226 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Miami Marlins21c199.5$42 inWon+$157.611,90649.3%940 W · 966 L+25.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe7e…46cebacked Boston Red Sox66c194.78$129 inLost-$128.68366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-9.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3a70…76b5backed Boston Red Sox72c139.58$100 inLost-$1005160.8%31 W · 20 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Miami Marlins32c129.08$41 inWon+$88.311,25844%553 W · 705 L-33.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Boston Red Sox63c111.38$70 inLost-$70.2246258%268 W · 194 L-1.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29de…d9e6backed Boston Red Sox63c111.38$70 inLost-$70.2260859.2%360 W · 248 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17d7…9e1ebacked Boston Red Sox63c84.6$53 inLost-$53.31,04958.4%613 W · 436 L+21.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39f8…badabacked Boston Red Sox63c78.91$50 inLost-$502680.8%21 W · 5 L+5.8wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+43%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Miami Marlins38c58.6$22 inWon+$36.421,87750.2%943 W · 934 L-6.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Miami Marlins27c55$15 inWon+$39.951,93944.5%862 W · 1,077 L-29.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Boston Red Sox61c50$31 inLost-$30.51,97953.2%1,052 W · 927 L+45.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf766…9251backed Boston Red Sox63c47$30 inLost-$29.611,50163.4%951 W · 550 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Miami Marlins32c39.14$13 inWon+$26.5494456.5%533 W · 411 L+32.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7629…226cbacked Miami Marlins31c32.32$10 inWon+$22.38038.8%31 W · 49 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+23.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaae2…2383backed Boston Red Sox63c30.41$19 inLost-$19.164353.5%23 W · 20 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-12.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x60d0…2e36backed Boston Red Sox69c28.65$20 inLost-$19.6727748.7%135 W · 142 L-12.8wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x74dd…f3c5backed Boston Red Sox66c20$13 inLost-$13.211854.2%64 W · 54 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-10.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Miami Marlins67c15.25$10 inWon+$5.088,48447.9%4,062 W · 4,422 L+79.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.