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MLB · resolved market

Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$31,753
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$31,808

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,753 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Under48c13,645$6,566 inWon+$7,079.0311,10251.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L+135.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78cc…a081backed Over51c7,640$3,896 inLost-$3,896.466546.2%30 W · 35 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8efa…894cbacked Over50c2,000$1,000 inLost-$1,00049245.9%226 W · 266 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2ab…3bb3backed Under56c1,796$1,000 inWon+$795.544963.3%31 W · 18 L+6.9wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+28.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x821d…cf16backed Over32c1,745$566 inLost-$566.4617442%73 W · 101 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88c5…4815backed Over53c1,428$757 inLost-$756.5937856.9%215 W · 163 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over50c1,408$704 inLost-$704.067,07850.5%3,576 W · 3,502 L+1.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under65c1,400$913 inWon+$487.013,13948.2%1,514 W · 1,625 L-10.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over53c1,395$738 inLost-$737.7711,65352.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L+214.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Over50c1,223$612 inLost-$611.61,69749.1%834 W · 863 L+3.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd04…c5e1backed Under79c619.71$490 inWon+$129.5212100%12 W · 0 L+3.0wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+35.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under47c560.82$265 inWon+$296.38,30446.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe026…f409backed Over53c428.26$227 inLost-$226.982245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc72…2888backed Over6c390.56$23 inLost-$23.2715024.7%37 W · 113 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid+18%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over52c306.45$159 inLost-$159.451,93944.5%862 W · 1,077 L-29.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over49c246$121 inLost-$120.5449146.4%228 W · 263 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Under68c243.5$165 inWon+$78.912,17551.5%1,121 W · 1,054 L+54.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Under59c234$138 inWon+$95.688,68252.6%4,563 W · 4,119 L+505.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+4.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1262…056fbacked Under51c225$115 inWon+$110.2538449%188 W · 196 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16c8…1badbacked Over56c223.21$125 inLost-$12517339.9%69 W · 104 L-12.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-16%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2470…dc4dbacked Under49c204.08$100 inWon+$104.087054.3%38 W · 32 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb42…6e09backed Under51c196.08$100 inWon+$96.0817048.2%82 W · 88 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85b3…33efbacked Over52c192.31$100 inLost-$1009759.8%58 W · 39 L+8.0wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+13.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Over39c133.72$52 inLost-$52.091,25844%553 W · 705 L-33.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Under51c126.48$65 inWon+$61.831,87750.2%943 W · 934 L-6.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x796f…00f6backed Over52c109$56 inLost-$56.4831247.8%149 W · 163 L-1.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Over50c99.5$50 inLost-$49.751,90649.3%940 W · 966 L+25.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over50c90.5$45 inLost-$45.255,56750.5%2,812 W · 2,755 L+25.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf8e4…3b32backed Over20c61.71$12 inLost-$12.3436451.4%187 W · 177 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Over50c50$25 inLost-$252,44450.1%1,225 W · 1,219 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Over50c50$25 inLost-$2587254.2%473 W · 399 L+26.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5974…5c32backed Over51c47.06$24 inLost-$246657.6%38 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad90…1012backed Under50c40$20 inWon+$204746.8%22 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24ce…da46backed Over53c39.32$21 inLost-$20.8457252.1%298 W · 274 L+2.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1497…4414backed Over48c31.25$15 inLost-$152737%10 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e1b…aa71backed Under50c27$14 inWon+$13.512653.2%67 W · 59 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a87…fb21backed Over52c25$13 inLost-$1331552.4%165 W · 150 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Under50c23.22$12 inWon+$11.611,22250%611 W · 611 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x369e…d016backed Under57c20.88$12 inWon+$8.8812461.3%76 W · 48 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.