MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d8deee18ebe39e535e35192948bfd301ce0c0c72bdf15f9e6c6c54da6ee1588
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Boston Red Sox, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,922
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,569
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,922 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa084…bb99backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 54,973$23,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,088.8 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Miami Marlins | 58c | 50,000$29,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,000 | 1,449 | 49.5%717 W · 732 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Boston Red Sox | 10c | 2,222$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.04 | 3,139 | 48.2%1,514 W · 1,625 L | -10.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Miami Marlins | 58c | 2,196$1,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.4 | 1,697 | 49.1%834 W · 863 L | +3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Miami Marlins | 58c | 2,181$1,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$916.02 | 7,078 | 50.5%3,576 W · 3,502 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Miami Marlins | 58c | 1,900$1,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798 | 1,926 | 53.4%1,029 W · 897 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e14…95d4backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 742.86$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…0f82backed Boston Red Sox | 43c | 706.98$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 167 | 41.3%69 W · 98 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce7…3150backed Boston Red Sox | 44c | 681.82$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 168 | 45.8%77 W · 91 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Miami Marlins | 56c | 668.95$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.7 | 5,567 | 50.5%2,812 W · 2,755 L | +25.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Boston Red Sox | 11c | 503.86$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.42 | 11,102 | 51.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L | +135.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Miami Marlins | 58c | 250$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 1,478 | 51%754 W · 724 L | -19.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Miami Marlins | 57c | 227.93$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.89 | 747 | 52.5%392 W · 355 L | +17.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Miami Marlins | 57c | 191.86$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 1,894 | 52.9%1,001 W · 893 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4849…767fbacked Boston Red Sox | 42c | 171.43$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Miami Marlins | 57c | 103.12$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 2,327 | 51.1%1,188 W · 1,139 L | +26.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Miami Marlins | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 125 | 58.4%73 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…62eabacked Boston Red Sox | 46c | 65.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 259 | 48.3%125 W · 134 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Boston Red Sox | 43c | 59.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 423 | 48.2%204 W · 219 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Boston Red Sox | 44c | 56.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 315 | 54%170 W · 145 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Miami Marlins | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 2,444 | 50.1%1,225 W · 1,219 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 44.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 3,036 | 48%1,458 W · 1,578 L | +16.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins | 55c | 44.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 11,653 | 52.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L | +214.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…30f5backed Miami Marlins | 56c | 35.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 98 | 61.2%60 W · 38 L | +12.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Boston Red Sox | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 248 | 44.8%111 W · 137 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Miami Marlins | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 944 | 56.5%533 W · 411 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.