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MLB · resolved market

Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,871
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,881

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,871 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Under42c10,767$4,522 inWon+$6,245.0511,10251.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L+135.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over58c8,125$4,713 inLost-$4,712.7611,65352.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L+214.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88c5…4815backed Over58c1,457$845 inLost-$845.2537856.9%215 W · 163 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Under77c1,318$1,016 inWon+$302.448,68252.6%4,563 W · 4,119 L+505.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+4.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over23c917.55$212 inLost-$212.463,13948.2%1,514 W · 1,625 L-10.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over47c889.66$414 inLost-$413.692,17551.5%1,121 W · 1,054 L+54.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc7d…305ebacked Over71c845.07$600 inLost-$6002360.9%14 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under42c502.75$211 inWon+$292.238,30446.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under72c500$360 inWon+$1404,12057.6%2,375 W · 1,745 L+67.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe026…f409backed Over58c437.19$254 inLost-$253.572245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over52c338$175 inLost-$175.429,89146.4%4,594 W · 5,297 L+40.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over29c110.34$32 inLost-$321,20929%351 W · 858 L-0.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Over59c109.47$64 inLost-$64.091,87750.2%943 W · 934 L-6.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over29c107.15$31 inLost-$31.151,93944.5%862 W · 1,077 L-29.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x796f…00f6backed Over59c99$58 inLost-$58.4131247.8%149 W · 163 L-1.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24ce…da46backed Over58c97.15$56 inLost-$56.3557252.1%298 W · 274 L+2.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Under42c73.53$31 inWon+$42.651,25844%553 W · 705 L-33.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Under61c65.77$40 inWon+$25.3794456.5%533 W · 411 L+32.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Under73c50$37 inWon+$13.51,26758.5%741 W · 526 L+26.4wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05c5…6a69backed Under73c49.58$36 inWon+$13.3953357.6%307 W · 226 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Under73c25$18 inWon+$6.7546258%268 W · 194 L-1.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29de…d9e6backed Under73c25$18 inWon+$6.7560859.2%360 W · 248 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under73c19.52$14 inWon+$5.271,04958.4%613 W · 436 L+21.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56cc…d589backed Over59c17.63$10 inLost-$10.41,29256.8%734 W · 558 L+31.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Under69c16.9$12 inWon+$5.162,20040.2%884 W · 1,316 L+3.7wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.