MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ef1b808069fdb0094c6d418e85f56812443670aef652bc41a23783359e7b64e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Miami Marlins, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,957
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,907
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,957 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins | 48c | 9,966$4,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,158.77 | 11,653 | 52.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L | +214.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Boston Red Sox | 51c | 9,783$4,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,989.1 | 11,102 | 51.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L | +135.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Miami Marlins | 49c | 1,487$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.07 | 378 | 56.9%215 W · 163 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Boston Red Sox | 51c | 1,326$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.38 | 4,427 | 47.5%2,101 W · 2,326 L | -77.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e1…3241backed Boston Red Sox | 45c | 889.26$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Miami Marlins | 53c | 839.28$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.85 | 174 | 42%73 W · 101 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…f409backed Miami Marlins | 49c | 445.86$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.39 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Boston Red Sox | 65c | 306.58$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.8 | 2,175 | 51.5%1,121 W · 1,054 L | +54.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Boston Red Sox | 49c | 270.44$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.42 | 1,258 | 44%553 W · 705 L | -33.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Boston Red Sox | 51c | 268.99$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.43 | 9,891 | 46.4%4,594 W · 5,297 L | +40.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Boston Red Sox | 21c | 259.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.77 | 1,906 | 49.3%940 W · 966 L | +25.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Boston Red Sox | 46c | 155.54$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.08 | 3,139 | 48.2%1,514 W · 1,625 L | -10.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…0e95backed Miami Marlins | 28c | 150$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 157 | 47.1%74 W · 83 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins | 71c | 146.41$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 8,682 | 52.6%4,563 W · 4,119 L | +505.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Boston Red Sox | 72c | 125.12$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.09 | 747 | 52.5%392 W · 355 L | +17.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Miami Marlins | 49c | 119.17$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.92 | 1,877 | 50.2%943 W · 934 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeec6…4558backed Boston Red Sox | 76c | 117.87$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Miami Marlins | 48c | 104.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.73 | 572 | 52.1%298 W · 274 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,939 | 44.5%862 W · 1,077 L | -29.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa466…1c77backed Boston Red Sox | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +166.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Boston Red Sox | 34c | 97.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 5,861 | 43.7%2,562 W · 3,299 L | -190.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 69.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 342 | 33.9%116 W · 226 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Boston Red Sox | 58c | 64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 944 | 56.5%533 W · 411 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca78…fe5dbacked Miami Marlins | 27c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Boston Red Sox | 50c | 53.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 8,304 | 46.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Miami Marlins | 54c | 42.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41cf…8268backed Boston Red Sox | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 140 | 58.6%82 W · 58 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Boston Red Sox | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 423 | 48.2%204 W · 219 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Miami Marlins | 49c | 22.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 1,292 | 56.8%734 W · 558 L | +31.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Boston Red Sox | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 277 | 48.7%135 W · 142 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.