NFL · resolved market
Patriots Team Total: O/U 22.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e50d7c57cb83e7e9b1d995cb9f20ecaacc1f4e106d05dc26612ac8eff20f206
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,636
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,608
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,636 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd03b…856cbacked Under | 17c | 7,500$1,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,275 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ca…cccbbacked Under | 17c | 4,914$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 49c | 3,998$1,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,960.58 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b5…798cbacked Under | 18c | 3,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.26per pick | 39cpaid | +120.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0f65…cdd3backed Under | 16c | 2,800$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 49c | 795.91$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed Over | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +110.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked Under | 49c | 383.67$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddd3…dba6backed Under | 80c | 300$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 50c | 229.08$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.4 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd098…8c03backed Under | 52c | 201.28$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…b1afbacked Over | 27c | 150$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…18a0backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb6…2abbbacked Over | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…d1e7backed Under | 17c | 88.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 30cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdb…4d30backed Under | 49c | 63.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc923…5f12backed Over | 49c | 40.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Under | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6e…6a74backed Over | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46af…1f6abacked Under | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Patriots Team Total: O/U 22.5this page
- 1H Spread: Patriots (-1.5)Patriots won
- C.J. Stroud: Rushing Yards O/U 226.5Under won
- Christian Kirk: Anytime TouchdownYes won
- Dalton Schultz: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- Drake Maye: Rushing Yards O/U 35.5Under won
- Jayden Higgins: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- Spread: Patriots (-3.5)Patriots won
- Texans Team Total: O/U 19.5Under won
- Texans vs. PatriotsPatriots won
- Texans vs. Patriots: 1H MoneylinePatriots won
- Texans vs. Patriots: 1H O/U 20.5Over won
- Texans vs. Patriots: O/U 41.5Over won
- TreVeyon Henderson: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- Woody Marks: Rushing Yards O/U 57.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.